广西北部湾沿海城市群气候承载力分析与评价

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.274

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用气候自然影响因子和社会经济发展因子构建城市气候承载力定量评价体系，定量评价2000—2019年广西北部湾沿海城市群——北海、防城港、钦州的气候承载力变化。结果表明，研究期内三市气候天然容量波动增大，北海和防城港增长趋势显著，反映了城市化对气候的影响；极端气候事件压力波动剧烈，总体增长不显著；各地城市气候压力和城市协调发展力在城市发展进程中均呈上升趋势，但城市协调发展力的增长仍不足以平衡自然影响因子和城市经济发展造成的负面影响。北部湾城市群气候承载力整体呈显著波动下降趋势，反映气候环境对沿海城市建设发展制约越来越明显；三市气候承载力对气候天然容量、极端气候事件压力指标的变化响应敏感，极端低温、大风、干旱（持续无降雨）和暴雨事件是沿海城市群气候系统稳定性的主要威胁因子。在今后北部湾沿海城市群发展规划中，提升气候承载力需要提高科技环保和防御自然灾害的能力，走低能耗绿色发展道路，以应对气候变化带来的压力。

关键词: 广西北部湾, 城市群, 气候承载力, 可持续发展

Abstract:

The quantitative evaluation system of urban climate carrying capacity, constructed by using climate natural influence factors and socio-economic development factors, was used to quantitatively evaluate the climate carrying capacity changes of Guangxi Beibu Gulf coastal city cluster (Beihai, Fangchenggang and Qinzhou) from 2000 to 2019. The results show that the climate natural capacity of the three cities increases with fluctuations during the study period, and the growth trend of Beihai and Fangchenggang is significant, reflecting the influence of urbanization on climate; the pressure of extreme climate events fluctuates sharply and the overall growth is not significant; the city climate pressure and city coordinated development ability of each city show an increasing trend in the process of urban development, but the growth of city coordinated development ability, is still insufficient to balance the negative impacts brought by natural climate factors and urban economic development. The overall climate carrying capacity of Beibu Gulf urban cluster shows a fluctuating and significant downward trend, reflecting the increasingly obvious constraints of the climate environment on the construction and development of coastal cities; the climate carrying capacity of three cities is sensitive to the changes of climate natural capacity and extreme climate event pressure indicators, and extreme low temperature, strong wind, persistent no rainfall and heavy rainfall events are the main threat factors to the stability of the climate system of the coastal urban agglomeration. In future development planning of the Beibu Gulf urban cluster, it is necessary to enhance the climate carrying capacity to improve the ability of science and technology to protect the environment, and defend against natural disasters, and taking the road of low energy consumption to cope with the pressure brought by climate change.

Key words: Guangxi Beibu Gulf, Urban agglomeration, Climate carrying capacity, Sustainable development

吴筱雯, 何洁琳, 李妍君, 宋洁慧, 秦川. 广西北部湾沿海城市群气候承载力分析与评价[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(4): 446-456.

WU Xiao-Wen, HE Jie-Lin, LI Yan-Jun, SONG Jie-Hui, QIN Chuan. Analysis and evaluation of climate carrying capacity of Beibu Gulf urban cluster in south Guangxi[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(4): 446-456.

图/表 13

表1 城市气候承载力评价体系结构

Table 1 Structure of climate carrying capacity evaluation system

图1 2000—2019年北部湾城市群气候天然容量（CNC）变化

Fig. 1 Changes in climate natural capacity (CNC) of Beibu Gulf urban cluster during 2000-2019

表2 北部湾城市群气候天然容量（CNC）与各指标的相关系数

Table 2 Correlation coefficients between climate natural capacity (CNC) and each index of Beibu Gulf urban cluster

图2 2000—2019年间北部湾城市群极端气候事件压力（ECI）变化

Fig. 2 Changes in extreme climate event (ECI) of Beibu Gulf urban cluster during 2000-2019

表3 北部湾城市群极端气候事件压力（ECI）各指标权重系数

Table 3 Weight of each indicator of extreme climate event index (ECI) of Beibu Gulf urban cluster

表4 北部湾城市群ECI与各指标的相关系数

Table 4 Correlation coefficients between ECI and each index of Beibu Gulf urban cluster

图3 2000—2019年北部湾城市群城市气候压力(CCP)变化

Fig. 3 Changes in city climate pressure (CCP) of Beibu Gulf urban cluster during 2000-2019

表5 北部湾城市群城市气候压力（CCP）各指标权重系数

Table 5 Weight of each indicator of city climate pressure (CCP) of Beibu Gulf urban cluster

表6 北部湾城市群CCP与主要指标的相关系数

Table 6 Correlation coefficients between CCP and main indexes of Beibu Gulf urban cluster

图4 2000—2019年北部湾城市群城市协调发展力(CDA)变化

Fig. 4 Changes in city coordinated development ability (CDA) of Beibu Gulf urban cluster during 2000-2019

表7 北部湾城市群城市协调发展力(CDA)各指标权重系数

Table 7 Weight of each indicator of city coordinated development ability (CDA) of Beibu Gulf urban cluster

表8 北部湾城市群CDA与指标的相关系数

Table 8 Correlation coefficients between CDA and each index of Beibu Gulf urban cluster

图5 2000—2019年北部湾城市群气候承载力变化

Fig. 5 Changes in city carrying capacity (CCI) of Beibu Gulf urban cluster during 2000-2019

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