气候变化研究进展 ›› 2023, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (3): 293-304.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.247

• 气候变化影响 • 上一篇    下一篇

西北气候暖湿化的农业经济影响评估:以宁夏为例

罗慧1,2,3, 刘杰4(), 王丽5, 唐智亿6   

  1. 1 宁夏气象局,银川 750002
    2 中国气象局秦岭气溶胶与云微物理野外科学试验基地,西安 710015
    3 中国气象局旱区特色农业监测预警与风险管理重点实验室,银川 750002
    4 陕西师范大学国际商学院,西安 710119
    5 西安市气象局,西安 710016
    6 西安交通大学未来技术学院,西安 710049
  • 收稿日期:2022-10-26 修回日期:2022-12-15 出版日期:2023-05-30 发布日期:2023-04-13
  • 通讯作者: 刘杰,男,副教授,liujiesx@snnu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:罗慧,女,正研级高级工程师
  • 基金资助:
    陕西重点产业创新链(群)项目(2020ZDLSF06-02);国家自然科学基金国际合作项目(41861144021);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(20XJC790002);国家自然科学基金面上项目(42175171)

Impact assessment of climate warming and wetting on agricultural economy in Northwest China: a case study of Ningxia

LUO Hui1,2,3, LIU Jie4(), WANG Li5, TANG Zhi-Yi6   

  1. 1 Ningxia Meteorological Bureau, Yinchuan 750002, China
    2 Qinling Mountains Field Experiment Station for Aerosol and Cloud Microphysics, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Xi’an 710015, China
    3 Key Laboratory of Monitoring, Early Warning and Risk Management for Special Agriculture in Dry Areas, CMA, Yinchuan 750002, China
    4 International Business School, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China
    5 Xi’an Meteorological Bureau, Xi’an 710016, China
    6 School of Future Technology, Xi’an Jiao tong University, Xi’an 710049, China
  • Received:2022-10-26 Revised:2022-12-15 Online:2023-05-30 Published:2023-04-13

摘要:

以宁夏农业经济为研究对象,综合气候学与经济学交叉学科理论,在阐述气候变化影响农业经济基本理论的基础上,基于微观计量经济学方法定量评估了1991—2020年历史气候变化和极端天气气候事件对宁夏农业经济产值的差异化影响,进而预估了SSP3-RCP8.5和SSP2-RCP6.0情景下2041—2070年和2071—2100年气候暖湿化的潜在影响。结果表明,平均气温和降水均非线性影响农业经济产值,极端天气气候事件显著抑制农业经济增长,极端高温与重旱未能形成“热旱”复合型灾害影响;SSP2-RCP6.0发展路径可以大幅减缓SSP3-RCP8.5路径下未来升温的潜在负面影响。评估结果揭示了西北气候暖湿化对农业经济的复杂影响,有助于为区域最佳适应气候变化提供科学依据。

关键词: 气候变化, 极端天气气候事件, 农业经济, 暖湿化, 宁夏

Abstract:

This paper takes the agricultural economy of Ningxia as an example, integrates the interdisciplinary theories of climatology and economics, quantitatively assesses the differential impacts of historical climate change and extreme events on the agricultural economic output of Ningxia from 1991 to 2020 based on micro-econometric methods, and then the potential impacts of climate change under the SSP3-RCP8.5 and SSP2-RCP6.0 scenarios are estimated, respectively. The results show that both mean temperature and precipitation affect the agricultural economy non-linearly, extreme weather and climate events significantly inhibit agricultural economic growth, and extreme high temperature and heavy drought do not form a “hot-dry” compound hazard impact. The SSP2-RCP6.0 development pathway significantly mitigates the potential negative impacts of future warming relative to the SSP3-RCP8.5 pathway. The results of this assessment reveal the complex impacts of warming and wetting on the agricultural economy in Northwest China, and help to provide a scientific basis for optimal regional adaptation to climate change.

Key words: Climate change, Extreme weather and climate events, Agricultural economy, Warming and wetting, The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

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