气候变化研究进展 ›› 2023, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (3): 263-277.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.225

• 气候系统变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江上游近120年来气象干旱和水文干旱时空变化关系及其传递特征

李帅1(), 曾凌2, 张存杰3, 肖潺3, 张强3, 龚文婷1   

  1. 1 中国长江三峡集团有限公司流域枢纽运行管理中心,宜昌 443133
    2 长江水利委员会水文局,武汉 430010
    3 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2022-09-27 修回日期:2022-10-29 出版日期:2023-05-30 发布日期:2023-02-15
  • 作者简介:李帅,男,高级工程师,li_shuai@ctg.com.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(52109024);长江水科学研究联合基金项目(U2040218);中国长江三峡集团有限公司项目(0704181);中国长江三峡集团有限公司项目(0704182)

Spatio-temporal variations and propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the upper Yangtze River basin over last 120 years

LI Shuai1(), ZENG Ling2, ZHANG Cun-Jie3, XIAO Chan3, ZHANG Qiang3, GONG Wen-Ting1   

  1. 1 Operation and Administration Center for River Basin Hydro Complex, China Three Gorges Corporation, Yichang 443133, China
    2 Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China
    3 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2022-09-27 Revised:2022-10-29 Online:2023-05-30 Published:2023-02-15

摘要:

气象干旱是水文干旱的前兆,探明气象干旱向水文干旱的传递特征及规律,对水文干旱早期预警和防灾减灾具有重要意义。基于长江上游1901—2020年长系列气象水文数据,采用标准化降雨蒸散发指数(SPEI)和标准化径流指数(SRI)分别表征气象干旱和水文干旱情势,采用Spearman相关分析法和滑动窗口法计算不同月份气象干旱向水文干旱的传递时间并分析其时空变化特征,引入湿润指数(HI)和水库指数(RI),探究气候变化和人类活动对干旱传递的影响。结果表明:120年来气象干旱和水文干旱均有加重趋势,且随时间尺度增大,干旱历时增长;气象干旱向水文干旱传递时间整体呈现明显时空异质性,即冬季长、其他季节短,西北部长、东南部短;干旱传递在春、夏季整体呈加快趋势,在秋、冬季整体呈减慢趋势,干旱传递时间变化与长江上游整体干湿状况和密集水电开发有关。

关键词: 气象干旱, 水文干旱, 传递时间, 时空特征, 长江上游

Abstract:

Meteorological drought is a precursor of hydrological drought. Understanding the propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought is important for the early warning of hydrological drought. Based on the meteorological and hydrological data from 1901 to 2020 in the upper Yangtze River basin, the characteristics of meteorological and hydrological droughts were firstly analyzed by using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standardized runoff index (SRI), respectively. The tempo-spatial propagation time from meteorological to hydrological drought for each month were then calculated by the Spearman correlations and sliding window algorithm. The impacts of climate change and human activities on the propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought were finally evaluated by the humidity index (HI) and reservoir index (RI). Results are as follows. Meteorological and hydrological droughts tend to aggravate, and the larger time scale, the longer duration of both droughts. There are obvious spatio-temporal heterogeneity in propagation time from meteorological to hydrological drought, which is long in winter/in northwest, whilst short in spring, summer and autumn/in southeast. The overall drought propagation tends to be faster in spring and summer while it tends to be slower in autumn and winter, and its changes are related to both dry/wet pattern change and intensive hydropower development in the upper Yangtze River basin.

Key words: Meteorological drought, Hydrological drought, Propagation time, Spatio-temporal characteristics, The upper Yangtze River basin

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