气候变化研究进展 ›› 2023, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (3): 263-277.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.225
李帅1(), 曾凌2, 张存杰3, 肖潺3, 张强3, 龚文婷1
收稿日期:
2022-09-27
修回日期:
2022-10-29
出版日期:
2023-05-30
发布日期:
2023-02-15
作者简介:
李帅,男,高级工程师,基金资助:
LI Shuai1(), ZENG Ling2, ZHANG Cun-Jie3, XIAO Chan3, ZHANG Qiang3, GONG Wen-Ting1
Received:
2022-09-27
Revised:
2022-10-29
Online:
2023-05-30
Published:
2023-02-15
摘要:
气象干旱是水文干旱的前兆,探明气象干旱向水文干旱的传递特征及规律,对水文干旱早期预警和防灾减灾具有重要意义。基于长江上游1901—2020年长系列气象水文数据,采用标准化降雨蒸散发指数(SPEI)和标准化径流指数(SRI)分别表征气象干旱和水文干旱情势,采用Spearman相关分析法和滑动窗口法计算不同月份气象干旱向水文干旱的传递时间并分析其时空变化特征,引入湿润指数(HI)和水库指数(RI),探究气候变化和人类活动对干旱传递的影响。结果表明:120年来气象干旱和水文干旱均有加重趋势,且随时间尺度增大,干旱历时增长;气象干旱向水文干旱传递时间整体呈现明显时空异质性,即冬季长、其他季节短,西北部长、东南部短;干旱传递在春、夏季整体呈加快趋势,在秋、冬季整体呈减慢趋势,干旱传递时间变化与长江上游整体干湿状况和密集水电开发有关。
李帅, 曾凌, 张存杰, 肖潺, 张强, 龚文婷. 长江上游近120年来气象干旱和水文干旱时空变化关系及其传递特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(3): 263-277.
LI Shuai, ZENG Ling, ZHANG Cun-Jie, XIAO Chan, ZHANG Qiang, GONG Wen-Ting. Spatio-temporal variations and propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the upper Yangtze River basin over last 120 years[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(3): 263-277.
图2 长江上游面平均降水(a)、气温(b)、潜在蒸散发(c)及宜昌站流量(d)年际变化过程
Fig. 2 Annual variations of areal mean precipitation (a), temperature (b), potential evapotranspiration (c) over the upper Yangtze River basin, and runoff (d) at Yichang station
图3 1901—2020年长江上游年降水(a)、平均气温(b)和潜在蒸散发(c)变化趋势的空间分布
Fig. 3 Spatial distributions of variation trend of annual precipitation (a), mean temperature (b), and potential evapotranspiration (c) over the upper Yangtze River basin in 1901-2020
图4 不同时间尺度长江上游SPEI面均值(a)和宜昌水文站SRI (b)时程变化
Fig. 4 Variations of areal mean SPEI-n over the upper Yangtze River basin (a) and SRI-n at Yichang station (b) in different accumulation periods
图5 不同时间尺度长江上游不同格点SPEI标准差时程变化
Fig. 5 Variations of standard deviation of areal SPEI-n over the upper Yangtze River basin in different accumulation periods
图6 1901—2020年长江上游不同月份SPEI-n与SRI-1最大相关系数的空间分布 注:“+”表示通过0.05的显著性水平检验。
Fig. 6 Spatial distributions of maximum Spearman correlation coefficients between SRI-1 and SPEI-n at different months over the upper Yangtze River basin in 1901-2020. (“+” denotes that it has passed the significance test at the 95% confidence level)
图7 1901—2020年长江上游不同月份气象干旱向水文干旱传递时间的空间分布 注:“+”表示通过0.05的显著性水平检验。
Fig. 7 Spatial distributions of propagation time from meteorological to hydrological drought at different months over the upper Yangtze River basin in 1901-2020. (“+” denotes that it has passed the significance test at the 95% confidence level)
图8 长江上游不同月份SPEI-n与SRI-1最大相关系数的时程变化 注:图中灰色带表示均值±标准差的不确定性区间。
Fig. 8 Annual variations of maximum Spearman correlation coefficients between SRI-1 and SPEI-n at different months over the upper Yangtze River basin. (Gray bound denotes the uncertainty interval obtained by means ± standard deviations)
图9 长江上游不同月份气象干旱向水文干旱传递时间的时程变化 注:图中灰色带表示均值±标准差的不确定性区间。
Fig. 9 Annual variations of propagation time from meteorological to hydrological drought at different months over the upper Yangtze River basin. (Gray bound denotes the uncertainty interval obtained by means ± standard deviations)
图10 1901—2020年长江上游不同月份干湿气候区空间分布
Fig. 10 Spatial distributions of humidity index (HI) at different months over the upper Yangtze River basin in 1901-2020
图11 1925—1996年不同月份长江上游干旱传递时间均值与湿润指数(HI)均值的相关关系
Fig. 11 Correlations between areal means of propagation time from meteorological to hydrological drought and humidity index (HI) at different months over the upper Yangtze River basin during 1925-1996
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