基于系统动力学的城市客运交通减碳情景模拟研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.138

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着我国城市化和机动化的快速发展，城市客运交通已成为城市二氧化碳排放的重要来源。在“双碳”目标的大背景下，如何实现城市客运交通的减排成为人们关注的重点问题。利用北京市数据，综合考虑道路绿地和新能源汽车占比对城市客运交通碳排放的影响，建立了北京市客运交通碳排放的系统动力学模型，测算出北京市2011—2020年城市客运交通碳排放总量;根据碳达峰愿景设定了5种减排情景，并评估了不同情景在2021—2025年的减排效果。结果表明：私家车是城市客运交通碳排放的最主要贡献者;2019年城市道路绿地的年固碳量为同一时期公交车年碳排放量的28%;单情景下，北京市客运交通碳排放未能在2021—2025年间达到峰值，减排效果最佳的情景为“控制私人交通出行需求”;而北京市客运交通至少需要在两种减排情景的作用下才能在2030年前实现碳达峰。

关键词: 城市客运交通, 碳排放, 系统动力学模型, 情景分析

Abstract:

With the rapid development of urbanization and motorization in China, urban passenger transport has become a major contributor to carbon dioxide emissions. Under the background of “double carbon”, how to realize the energy conservation and emission reduction of urban passenger transport has become a focus of attention. Based on the data of Beijing, the system dynamics model of carbon emission of urban passenger transport was improved, by considering the influence of road green space and new energy vehicles on the carbon emissions, and the total carbon emissions of urban passenger transport in Beijing from 2011 to 2020 were calculated. Five emission reduction scenarios were proposed based on the carbon peak background, and the emission reduction effects of different scenarios from 2021 to 2025 were estimated. The results show that the private car is the main contributor of urban passenger transportation carbon emissions. The annual carbon sequestration of urban road green space is equivalent to about 28% of the annual carbon emissions of buses. Under single scenario, the carbon emissions of urban passenger transportation in Beijing fails to reach the peak from 2021 to 2025, and the scenario with the best emission reduction effect is “controlling private traffic travel demand”. Under double scenario, part of the combined scenario can make the carbon emissions of urban passenger transportation in Beijing reach the peak before 2030 according to the existing scenario, and the best combined scenario is “controlling private traffic travel demand” and “improving energy efficiency”. Under triple scenario, except for the combined scenarios of “promoting new energy vehicles”, “improving road carrying capacity” and “improving road greening level”, all the other combined scenarios can make urban passenger transportation in Beijing reach the carbon peak before 2030 according to the existing scenario.

Key words: Urban passenger transportation, Carbon emissions, System dynamics model, Scenario analysis

戈秋虞, 徐艺诺, 邱荣祖, 胡喜生, 张园园, 刘娜翠, 张兰怡. 基于系统动力学的城市客运交通减碳情景模拟研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(3): 357-370.

GE Qiu-Yu, XU Yi-Nuo, QIU Rong-Zu, HU Xi-Sheng, ZHANG Yuan-Yuan, LIU Na-Cui, ZHANG Lan-Yi. Scenario simulation of urban passenger transportation carbon reduction based on system dynamics[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(3): 357-370.

图/表 19

图1 城市客运交通边界

Fig. 1 Boundaries of urban passenger transportation

图2 城市客运交通碳排放系统因果关系图注：箭头表示变量之间的因果关系，“+”和“-”分别表示正效应和负效应。

Fig. 2 Structure chart of urban passenger transportation carbon emissions system

表1 单位面积道路绿地年固碳量参考文献

Table 1 Reference of annual carbon sequestration of road greenspace per unit area

图3 人口经济子系统流图

Fig. 3 Stocks and flow of population and economy subsystem

表2 人口经济子系统的主要方程

Table 2 Main equations of population and economy subsystem

图4 城市道路子系统流图注：<Time>表示带有时间隐含变量的表函数。

Fig. 4 Stocks and flow of urban road subsystem

表3 城市道路子系统的主要方程

Table 3 Main equations of urban road subsystem

图5 道路绿地子系统流图注：<Time>表示带有时间隐含变量的表函数。

Fig. 5 Stocks and flow of road green space

表4 道路绿地子系统的主要方程

Table 4 Main equations of road green space subsystem

图6 碳排放子系统流图注：<Time>表示带有时间隐含变量的表函数。

Fig. 6 Stocks and flow of carbon emissions

表5 碳排放子系统的主要方程

Table 5 Main equations of carbon emissions subsystem

图7 2011—2020年北京市客运交通系统动力学模型敏感性检验

Fig. 7 Sensitivity analysis of the system dynamic model of passenger transportation in Beijing in 2011-2020

表6 北京市客运交通系统动力学模型精度检验结果

Table 6 The accuracy test results of the system dynamic model of passenger transportation in Beijing

图8 北京市各类交通方式碳排放量及道路绿地固碳量

Fig. 8 Carbon emissions of various transportation modes and carbon sequestration of road green space in Beijing

表7 减排控制情景设置说明

Table 7 Description of setting scenarios for carbon emissions reduction

图9 单一情景下北京市客运交通碳排放量注：CPD，控制私人交通出行需求;PVE，发展新能源汽车;IEE，提高能源效率;IRC，提高道路承载能力;IRG，提高道路绿化水平;BS，基准情景。

Fig. 9 Urban passenger transportation carbon emissions under single strategy scenario in Beijing

图10 双情景下北京市客运交通碳排放量

Fig. 10 Urban passenger transportation carbon emissions under double strategy scenario in Beijing

图11 三情景下北京市客运交通碳排放量

Fig. 11 Urban passenger transportation carbon emissions under triple strategy scenario in Beijing

图12 四情景及综合情景下北京市客运交通碳排放量

Fig. 12 Urban passenger transportation carbon emissions under quadruple strategy scenario and comprehensive scenario in Beijing

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