利用区域气候模式预估未来登陆中国热带气旋活动

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.064

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

鉴于热带气旋（TC）对我国沿海地区的影响，研究全球变暖背景下未来登陆我国TC活动的变化，对于我国沿海地区的防灾减灾具有重要意义。基于CMIP5中全球气候模式HadGEM2-ES数据，文中利用区域气候模式RegCM4开展了历史时期和3种情景（RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5）下未来东亚区域气候的动力降尺度模拟，检验了模式对历史登陆我国TC活动及其相关大尺度环境场的模拟能力，并预估了3种情景下2030—2039年、2050—2059年和2089—2098年，登陆我国TC的路径、强度和频率的变化特征。结果表明：模式能合理地再现东亚区域历史时期（1986—2005年）大气环流场的空间结构以及登陆我国TC的特征；在3种情景下未来登陆我国TC的平均强度和数量均有不同程度的增加，尤其是台风及以上级别TC的总数明显增加，其中RCP8.5情景最突出，到21世纪末期（2089—2098年）登陆我国TC的平均强度、台风及以上级别TC总数的年平均值较历史时期将分别增加7.56%和1.05个；不同情景下未来登陆我国TC的路径均有不同程度的北移趋势，且全球升温的幅度越大，北移趋势越明显，这可能与未来中国近海显著变暖和垂直风切变减弱有关。未来我国沿海地区尤其是中高纬度很可能将面临日益严峻的TC灾害风险，亟需尽快开展防灾减灾及对策研究。

关键词: RegCM4模式, 中国, 热带气旋（TC）, 路径北移, 预估

Abstract:

In view of the impact of tropical cyclones (TCs) on coastal areas of China, it is of great significance for disaster prevention and reduction to study the changes of TC activities landing in China in the future under global warming. Based on outputs from the global climate model HadGEM2-ES in CMIP5, this study carried out dynamic downscaling simulation of the regional climate over East Asia in historical period and in the future under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) with low, intermediate and very high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), and tested the model’s ability of simulating the activities of TCs landing in China and TC-related large-scale environmental fields by using the regional climate model RegCM4. The changes of track, intensity and frequency of TCs landing in China during 2030-2039, 2050-2059 and 2089-2098 under three RCPs were also projected. The results are as follows. The model can reasonably reproduce the spatial structure of large-scale atmospheric circulation field over East Asia and the characteristics of TCs landing in China in the historical period (1986-2005). The average intensity and number of TCs landing in China under three RCPs will increase in varying degrees in the future, especially the number of typhoons and above will increase significantly. The most prominent changes appear in the RCP8.5 scenario, by the end of the 21st century (2089-2098), the average intensity, annual mean number of typhoons and above will increase by 7.56% and 1.05, respectively. The tracks of TCs landing in China under three RCPs in the future are prone to move northward in varying degrees. Moreover, the greater the global warming, the more obvious the northward tendency, which may be related to the significant warming offshore China and the weakening of vertical wind shear in the future. The prediction results of this study show that coastal areas of China, especially in the middle and high latitudes, are likely to face increasingly severe TC disasters in the future, so it is necessary to find the countermeasures of disaster prevention and reduction as soon as possible.

Key words: RegCM4 model, China, Tropical cyclones (TC), Northward shift of the TC tracks, Projection

聂心宇, 谭红建, 蔡榕硕, 高学杰. 利用区域气候模式预估未来登陆中国热带气旋活动[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(1): 23-37.

NIE Xin-Yu, TAN Hong-Jian, CAI Rong-Shuo, GAO Xue-Jie. Projection of the tropical cyclones landing in China in the future based on regional climate model[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(1): 23-37.

图/表 9

图1 研究区域海拔高度及范围注：图中红框区域范围为100°~140°E，10°~45°N。

Fig. 1 Altitude and regional scale of the study area

图2 1986—2005年观测(a)，模拟(b)以及模拟与观测之差(c)的夏季平均2 m高度的气温（填色部分）和925 hPa风场（箭头）

Fig. 2 Observation (a), simulation (b), bias between simulation and observation (c) of 2 m air temperature (shaded) and wind field at 925 hPa (arrows) in summer during 1986-2005

图3 1986—2005年观测(a)，模拟(b)以及模拟与观测之差(c)的夏季平均200~850 hPa垂直风切变注：图中黑色粗虚线和粗实线分别为观测和模拟的VWS为12 m/s的等值线。

Fig. 3 Observation (a), simulation (b), bias between simulation and observation (c) of 200-850 hPa vertical wind shear in summer during 1986-2005. (The black thick dotted line and black thick solid line are the contour lines of 12 m/s vertical wind shear observed and simulated, respectively)

图4 1986—2005年观测和模拟的登陆我国不同强度TC的路径分布(a、b)及其在2°×2°格点上的路径年均频数(c、d)和路径年均频数偏差 (e) 注：图中TS、STS、TY、STY、SSTY分别表示热带风暴、强热带风暴、台风、强台风和超强台风，下同。

Fig. 4 Observed (a) and simulated (b) landfall TC tracks with different intensity during 1986-2005, and observed track density (c), simulated track density (d), bias between simulated track density and observed track density (e) at 2°×2°grid point. (TS, STS, TY, STY, SSTY in the picture mean tropical storm, strong tropical storm, typhoon, strong typhoon, super typhoon, respectively)

图5 1986—2005年观测和模拟的登陆我国不同强度TC的年平均数量(a)和平均强度(b) 注：横坐标中的All表示5种TC总和。

Fig. 5 The annual average number (a) and average intensity (b) of TCs with different intensities observed and simulated in China from 1986 to 2005

图6 3种RCP情景下未来登陆我国TC在2°×2°格点上的路径年均频数相对于1986—2005年模拟值的差值分布注：图中黑点表示通过0.10显著性水平的检验。

Fig. 6 Difference distribution of track density of TCs landing in China at 2°×2° grid point in the future relative to the simulated value from 1986 to 2005 under three RCPs. (The black dots indicate the bias passing the significance test at the 90% confidence level)

图7 模拟的历史时期和3种RCP情景下未来不同时期登陆我国不同强度TC的年平均数量注：图中垂直线（黑线）为研究时间段的一个标准差，表示TC数量的不确定性范围。

Fig. 7 Annual average number of TCs with different intensity landing in China in the future under historical and three RCPs. (The vertical lines in the figure indicate one standard deviation of the study period and indicate the uncertainty range of TC number)

图8 同图7，但(a)、(c)、(e)为平均强度，(b)、(d)、(f)为平均强度变化的百分比

Fig. 8 The same as Fig 7, but (a), (c), (e) is the average intensity, and (b), (d), (f) is the percentage of average intensity change

图9 RCP8.5情景下1986—2098年海表面温度(a)和夏季200~850 hPa垂直风切变(b)的线性趋势注：黑点表示通过0.01显著性水平的检验，图(b)中粗黑线为VWS为12 m/s的等值线。

Fig. 9 Linear trends of sea surface temperature (a), 200-850 hPa vertical wind shear (b) in summer during 1986-2098 under the RCP8.5 scenario. (The thick black lines are the contours of 12 m/s vertical wind shear and the black dots indicate passing the significance test at the 99% confidence level)

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