IPCC第六次评估报告历史排放趋势和驱动因素相关核心结论解读

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.153

气候变化研究进展

所属专题： IPCC第六次评估报告WGIII解读专栏

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IPCC第六次评估报告历史排放趋势和驱动因素相关核心结论解读

谭显春^{1, 3}，戴瀚程²，顾佰和¹，黄晨²，朱开伟¹，马啸天²，闫洪硕^{1, 3}，刘心远²，朱衍磊²

1 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院，北京100190； 2 北京大学环境科学与工程学院，北京100871； 3 中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院，北京100049

收稿日期:2022-06-23 修回日期:2022-07-14 出版日期:2022-11-17 发布日期:2022-11-17
通讯作者: 谭显春
基金资助:
联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会IPCC第六次评估报告中国作者专项;国家基金委重点项目

Analysis on the Key Findings Related to Emission Trends and Drivers from the Working Group Ⅲ Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report

TAN Xian-Chun^{1, 3}, DAI Han-Cheng², GU Bai-He¹, HUANG Chen², ZHU Kai-Wei¹, MA Xiao-Tian², YAN Hong-Shuo^{1, 3}, LIU Xin-Yuan², ZHU Yan-Lei²

1 Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;
2 College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
3 School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2022-06-23 Revised:2022-07-14 Online:2022-11-17 Published:2022-11-17

摘要/Abstract

摘要： IPCC报告第三工作组中“排放历史趋势和驱动因素”章节是历次评估报告的核心内容之一。2022年4月发布的第六次评估报告(AR6)，在简要回顾1850-2019年历史累计排放趋势后，主要分析了1990—2019年期间温室气体排放趋势与驱动因素。相比于第五次评估报告(AR5)，在历史排放趋势方面，AR6在时间尺度上重点分析2010—2019年的近期变化，在研究内容上更加突出1.5℃温控目标的重要性，强化了对土地利用变化相关温室气体排放的关注，强调生产与消费视角下碳排放趋势及其区域演变趋势，探究了新冠肺炎疫情对全球碳排放的短期影响；在驱动因素方面，除了考虑全球和区域层面，还增加了基于能源、工业、建筑、交通、农林及其它土地利用（AFOLU）等部门视角的经济驱动因素分解及地区间差异分析，系统体现全球、区域和部门三层次下驱动因素的异同，指出区域层面存在能源转型成效，肯定了现有气候政策对气候减缓的积极影响以及突出技术变革与创新对气候减缓的益处，明确了化石能源基础设施碳锁定效应的不利影响等。最后，结合本章节关键结论的基础上，评估了相关结论对我国低碳发展的可能影响和启示。

关键词: IPCC第六次评估报告, 减缓气候变化, 历史排放趋势, 驱动因素, 气候变化

Abstract: ‘Emission Trends and Drivers’ chapter, an important basis for international climate negotiations, is one of the core contents of each assessment report. The trends and driving factors of greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 2019 are discussed in this chapter in the sixth assessment report (AR6) which released in April 2022. Compared with the content in the fifth assessment report (AR5), in terms of historical emission trends, AR6 focuses on the changes from 2010 to 2019, highlights the importance of the 1.5℃ temperature control target, pays more attention to carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions related to land use change, and further emphasizes the carbon emission trend and its regional evolution trend from the perspective of production and consumption. Besides, the short-term impact of COVID-19 on global carbon emissions is explored. In terms of driving factors, besides analyzing the global and regional economic driving factors, the economic driving factors and differences in energy, industry, construction, transportation, agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sectors are also studied, which systematically reflecting the similarities and differences of driving factors at the global, regional and departmental levels. The result affirms the positive impact of existing climate policies on climate mitigation, highlights the benefits of technological change and innovation on climate mitigation, and identifies the adverse impact of carbon locking of fossil energy infrastructure. Finally, based on the full analysis of the key conclusions in AR6, some suggestions on China's low-carbon development are given.

Key words: IPCC AR6, climate mitigation, emission trends, driving factors, climate change

谭显春戴瀚程顾佰和黄晨朱开伟马啸天闫洪硕刘心远朱衍磊. IPCC第六次评估报告历史排放趋势和驱动因素相关核心结论解读[J]. 气候变化研究进展, doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.153.

TAN Xian-Chun, DAI Han-Cheng, GU Bai-He, HUANG Chen, ZHU Kai-Wei, MA Xiao-Tian, YAN Hong-Shuo, LIU Xin-Yuan, ZHU Yan-Lei. Analysis on the Key Findings Related to Emission Trends and Drivers from the Working Group Ⅲ Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report[J]. Climate Change Research, doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.153.

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参考文献 7

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IPCC第六次评估报告历史排放趋势和驱动因素相关核心结论解读

Analysis on the Key Findings Related to Emission Trends and Drivers from the Working Group Ⅲ Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report

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