气候变化研究进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (4): 482-491.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.016

• 气候系统变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

云南初夏干湿演变特征和基于CMIP6模式模拟的预估分析

周建琴1(), 黄玮1(), 李蒙1, 郑建萌1, 罗蒙1, 符睿2   

  1. 1 云南省气候中心,昆明 650034
    2 云南省气象科学研究所,昆明 650034
  • 收稿日期:2022-01-24 修回日期:2022-04-03 出版日期:2022-07-30 发布日期:2022-06-20
  • 通讯作者: 黄玮
  • 作者简介:周建琴,女,高级工程师, 24095528@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(42165004);国家自然科学基金(41665005);国家自然科学基金(4207513);云南省重点研发计划-社会发展专项(202203AC100005);中国气象局创新专项(CXFZ2021Z034);云南省气象局科技项目(YZ202203)

Dry-wet climate evolution feature and projection of future changes based on CMIP6 models in early summer over Yunnan province, China

ZHOU Jian-Qin1(), HUANG Wei1(), LI Meng1, ZHENG Jian-Meng1, LUO Meng1, FU Rui2   

  1. 1 Yunnan Climate Center, Kunming 650034, China
    2 Yunnan Institute of Meteorology Sciences, Kunming 650034, China
  • Received:2022-01-24 Revised:2022-04-03 Online:2022-07-30 Published:2022-06-20
  • Contact: HUANG Wei

摘要:

使用1961—2020年的观测数据和2021—2080年的模式预估数据,首先分析了云南初夏干燥度指数(aridity index,AI)的演变特征和影响因子相对贡献,然后采用国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)中的20个全球模式,对SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5以及SSP5-8.5情景下云南初夏未来干湿变化进行了预估研究。结果表明:(1) 1961—2020年云南初夏气候整体湿润,但为变干燥的趋势,有明显的年代际变化特征,1960s、1970s以及2000s气候相对湿润,其余年代相对干燥,2000s(2010s)为1961年以来最湿润(干燥)的10年。(2) 2021—2080年在3种排放情景下,云南初夏气候较1995—2014年均为变干燥的趋势,SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5以及SSP5-8.5情景下,AI分别减少13.9%、17.9%以及24.9%,西南部将可能是湿润度降幅最大值中心。(3) 1961—2020年,降水对云南初夏气候干湿变化的贡献大于潜在蒸散量;而2021—2080年,潜在蒸散量对气候变干燥的贡献大于降水量,且随排放情景的增高和时间推移,其贡献将逐渐增大。

关键词: 云南, 干湿变化, 预估, 干燥度指数(AI)

Abstract:

The dry/wet climate change in early summer has an important impact on the industrial and ecological environment in Yunnan province. In this article, the evolution characteristics of aridity index (AI) were analyzed from 1961 to 2020 using observation data, and the probable trend in 2021-2080 was projected by using 20 CMIP6 models under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The AI in early summer of Yunnan province showed a decreasing trend from 1961 to 2020, and it had obvious inter-decadal change characteristics, the climate of 1960s, 1970s and 2000s was humid, and the rest period was dry, 2000s (2010s) was the wettest (driest) decade since 1961. Under three SSPs from 2021 to 2080, the climate in early summer of Yunnan will be drier than the average of 1995-2014. The regional average AI over Yunnan would decrease by 13.9%, 17.9%, and 24.9% under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Southwestern Yunnan will be the center of the largest decrease for wetness. The main influencing factor of climate drying is precipitation in 1961-2020, but it will be potential evapotranspiration in 2021-2080, which would increase gradually with time and the increase of emission scenario.

Key words: Yunnan province, Dry-wet climate change, Projection, Aridity index (AI)

京ICP备11008704号-4
版权所有 © 《气候变化研究进展》编辑部
地址:北京市海淀区中关村南大街46号 邮编:100081 电话/传真:(010)58995171 E-mail:accr@cma.gov.cn
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发 技术支持:support@magtech.com.cn