冰冻圈影响区恢复力研究和实践：进展与展望

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.015

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候变化引起全球冰冻圈各要素普遍退缩,进而深刻影响着区域生态安全和社会经济发展。恢复力(resilience)以降低脆弱性为目标,维持和培育社会-生态系统应对外界胁迫和干扰的能力,为应对冰冻圈变化引起的负面影响、实现区域可持续发展提供了重要的理论和实践框架。文中辨识了全球变暖背景下冰冻圈过程和功能变化对主要社会-生态系统的影响,综述了当前冰冻圈影响区恢复力相关的主要研究和实践进展,探讨了加强冰冻圈影响区社会-生态系统恢复力的路径。我们认为未来要进一步加强区域和全球冰冻圈变化及其影响综合评估,深入研究冰冻圈影响区社会-生态系统变化的驱动机制、级联效应和稳态转换;在实践上将减缓、适应和转型有机结合,建立管控区域社会-生态系统演化的综合监测、评估、预警和决策系统,从而促进系统朝着更具恢复力和可持续的路径发展。

关键词: 冰冻圈, 恢复力, 社会-生态系统, 气候变化, 可持续发展

Abstract:

As the Earth system enters the Anthropocene, the cryosphere is rapidly undergoing shrinkages, exerting the impacts on regional ecological security and socio-economic development. Resilience thinking aims to reduce vulnerability, maintain and foster the persistence, adaptability, and transformability of complex adaptive social-ecological systems. By facilitating the research and practice on the socio-ecological system resilience in the cryosphere affected areas, it is of far-reaching significance to address the impact of climate change related cryosphere changes and achieve regional sustainable development. This paper identifies the impact of changes in the cryosphere process and function on relevant socio-ecological systems in the context of climate change, summarizes the main research and practice on resilience over cryosphere affected area, including high mountain and surrounding areas, polar regions, and coastal regions, and further discusses the resilient pathways over the cryosphere affected area. In general, the resilience building over cryosphere affected area needs to combine mitigation, adaptation and transformation, and establish series of robust systems including monitoring, assessing, early warning and decision-making so as to navigate the system toward more resilient and sustainable pathway.

Key words: Cryosphere, Resilience, Social-ecological systems, Climate change, Sustainability

苏勃, 效存德. 冰冻圈影响区恢复力研究和实践：进展与展望[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(5): 579-590.

SU Bo, XIAO Cun-De. Research and practice on socio-ecological systems resilience over cryosphere affected areas: progress and prospects[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(5): 579-590.

图/表 3

图1 冰冻圈服务/灾害及其直接相关的主要社会-生态系统注：冰冻圈服务分类体系依据文献[5],冰冻圈灾害分类体系依据文献[7],不同颜色线条代表冰冻圈服务/灾害与不同社会-生态系统的关联。

Fig. 1 Cryosphere services & disasters and associated socio-ecological systems

图2 社会-生态系统适应性循环(a)与扰沌(b)模型[41,42,43,44] 注：适应性循环理论认为社会-生态系统演化都将依次经过开发(r)、保护(K)、释放(Ω)和更新(α) 4个阶段,构成一个适应性循环[42,43,44],系统在不同阶段可供选择的发展空间（潜力)、内部连通性（connectedness）以及抵抗干扰能力（恢复力）存在显著差异。扰沌理论进一步提供了系统内跨尺度作用的联结模式,认为系统内不同等级/尺度的子系统演化通过“记忆”或“反抗”相互依赖,从而形成一种扰沌现象[41]。

Fig. 2 Adaptive Cycle and Panarchy models for socio-ecological systems[41,42,43,44]

图3 冰冻圈影响区恢复力通用路径示意图

Fig. 3 A general pathway for resilience building over cryosphere affected areas

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