山区孕灾环境下地震和极端天气气候对地质灾害的影响

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.174

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

开展多致灾因子耦合作用下的地质灾害研究对山区综合风险防范和可持续发展至关重要。在山区孕灾环境中,极端降水和地震是触发滑坡等地质灾害的主要因素。以往研究多在山地孕灾环境稳定的假设下,研究极端降水或强震单独导致的地质灾害过程,而对孕灾环境变化下的极端天气和地震致灾因子共同诱发地质灾害的关注不足。针对这一问题,梳理了国内外发生在山区的地震和极端降水共同导致滑坡等地质灾害的研究案例,系统总结了山区强震与极端降水引发滑坡等地质灾害的相互作用过程。现有研究已在地震和极端降水引发滑坡等地质灾害的问题上取得了以下认识：(1)山区地震可强烈改变孕灾环境,显著提升震后降水引发地质灾害的可能性,放大极端降水-滑坡灾害链;(2)地震对降水引发滑坡的影响随着震后时间的推移逐渐减弱,该现象可能受控于气候因素;(3)在全球气候变化背景下,极端天气气候事件增多,定量研究山区强震和极端天气气候二者“遭遇”下的地质灾害链将面临更多挑战。由于观测案例不足,针对山区地震与极端降水共同导致地质灾害的研究仍缺少定量分析,触发机理也需进一步明确。

关键词: 极端天气气候, 山区地震, 灾害“遭遇”, 地质灾害链, 气候变化

Abstract:

Studying interplays among different geo-hazard triggers is crucial for mitigating integrated hazard risks and sustaining sustainability in mountain communities. Extreme precipitation and strong seismicity in mountain environment are major triggers for initiation of geo-hazards, such as landslides. Traditional studies on geo-hazards have been extensively carried out by treating them with single triggers, yet compound effects of earthquakes and extreme weathers on geo-hazards initiations have largely been ignored. Regional-scale geo-hazard cases that were jointly caused by earthquake and extreme weather have been reviewed to analyze the interplay between both triggers in initiating geo-hazards. Three major points can be drawn from existing literatures: 1) strong mountain earthquakes can alter mountain environments, which could significantly increase the likelihood of geo-hazards' initiations and magnify its magnitude; 2) this magnifying effect decays with time and may be controlled by climate; 3) extreme weathers have been increasing under climate change and its coalition with strong earthquakes in tectonic mountains will lead to more complicated problems. Due to a lack of observations, joint triggering mechanism of extreme weathers and earthquakes on geo-hazard initiation remains elusive.

Key words: Extreme weathers, Mountain earthquakes, Hazards coalition, Geo-hazards' chain, Climate change

史培军, 杨文涛. 山区孕灾环境下地震和极端天气气候对地质灾害的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(4): 405-414.

SHI Pei-Jun, YANG Wen-Tao. Compound effects of earthquakes and extreme weathers on geo-hazards in mountains[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(4): 405-414.

图/表 6

图1 汶川地震后重建的平武县建全村被发生于2013年8月的泥石流摧毁,地震前2002年11月的卫星影像(a),地震4年后的卫星影像(b),泥石流后的卫星影像(c) 注：所有影像来自Google Earth,研究区位于32°14′57.8′′N,104°53′8.7′′E。

Fig. 1 The post-seismic newly built buildings in Jianquan village, Pingwu, were destroyed by a debris flow in August 2013, pre-seismic 1 m resolution IKONOS image (a), 0.5 m WorldView-01 image in 2012 (b) (4 years after the earthquake),1 m IKONOS image after the debris flow (c)

图2 极端天气气候对地震-地质灾害链影响(a)灾害“遭遇”,(b)地震可显著改变孕灾环境,使降水极易诱发地质灾害（黑线所示）

Fig. 2 Impact of extreme weather and climate on earthquake-landslide hazard chain (a) when intense precipitation and earthquake occur concurrently, (b) major earthquakes could significantly alter environment, making lots of slopes unstable during precipitation

图3 2013年5月1日—9月30日天水市麦积区日值降水数据

Fig. 3 Daily precipitation record at the Maiji meteorology station, Tianshui from 1 May 2013 to 30 September 2013

表1 1964年7月至2019年10月间天水地区单日降水最多的Top10发生日期

Table 1 Top ten daily precipitation from July 1964 to October 2019 at Maiji meteorology station

Fig. 4 Satellite images before and after the outburst of the glacial debris flow in October 2018 at Yalong Zangbo River (a) intensity map of the Milin earthquake on 18th November 2017 (data source: USGS), (b) false color Landsat 8 OSL image on 4 February 2017 before the earthquake, (c) post-seismic image on 22 January 2018, (d) debris dammed lake on 12 November 2018

图5 1989—2018年林芝气象站9月份气温和降水统计

Fig. 5 Statistics of September temperature and precipitation from 1989 to 2018 in Nyingchi meteorology station

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