气候保险的概念、理论及在中国的发展建议

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.137

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候风险可能给人类社会带来巨大的生命和财产损失,气候保险通过转移分散风险成为应对气候风险的有效机制。文中首先在辨析气候保险的概念和市场机制等理论基础上,分析了气候保险存在逆向选择风险与难以满足大数法则、存在道德风险与反馈效应的问题;其次梳理了发达国家气候保险的发展情况,其风险分散和转移功能比较强,保费一部分存在政府补贴,一般采取政府紧急贷款、再保险和保险衍生品的方式进一步分散风险,但是也存在道德风险的问题。最后分析了中国气候保险的发展现状发现存在着难以满足大数法则的问题,道德风险尚无明确体现,并提出建议:完善气象站基础设施、制定自然灾害风险地图、提高公众和敏感行业气候保险的购买意愿等尽量使气候保险满足大数法则;促使保险公司在设计保险产品时考虑非经济成本,未雨绸缪避免道德风险及反馈效应;适时发展气候再保险和保险衍生品,建立分散和转移风险的市场机制。

关键词: 气候保险, 大数法则, 逆向选择, 道德风险, 反馈效应

Abstract:

Climate risks may cause tremendous mortality and property losses, and climate insurance is an effective measure to manage climate risks by transferring and spreading them. Firstly, based on the discrimination of the theoretical basis of the fundamental definition and the market mechanism of climate insurance, this study points out and analyzes two main problems of this kind of insurance: the dissatisfaction of Law of Large Numbers, the existence of moral hazards and feedback effects. Secondly, this paper teases out the development of climate insurance in developed countries, which is relatively mature: its function of transferring and spreading risks is relatively strong due to a portion of government subsidies to insurance premium, emergency government loans, reinsurance and insurance derivative instruments. However, it faces problems of adverse selection and moral hazards. Finally, this study analyzes the statuesque in China, finding the problems that the climate insurance products are quite limited and the public willingness to pay is relatively weak, and then proposes suggestions to perfect the climate insurance in China: first, to improve weather station infrastructure, to develop natural disaster risk maps, and to increase public and sensitive industries’ willingness to purchase climate insurance in order to make it meet the Law of Large Numbers; second, to urge insurance companies to consider non-economic cost when designing insurance products to avoid moral hazards and feedback effects in advance; third, to promote climate reinsurance and insurance derivatives at the proper time.

Key words: Climate insurance, Law of Large Numbers, Adverse selection, Moral hazards, Feedback effects

许光清, 陈晓玉, 刘海博, 黄丹泽, 张友谊. 气候保险的概念、理论及在中国的发展建议[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(3): 373-382.

Guang-Qing XU, Xiao-Yu CHEN, Hai-Bo LIU, Dan-Ze HUANG, You-Yi ZHANG. The conception and theory of climate insurance and its enlightenment to China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(3): 373-382.

图/表 1

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