海洋和冰冻圈变化有关的极端事件、突变及其影响与风险

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.240

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》（SROCC）于2019年9月在IPCC第一工作组和第二工作组第二次联合大会上得到审议通过,并得到了IPCC第51届全会接受和批准。文中主要对该报告中海洋和冰冻圈变化有关的极端事件、突变及其影响与风险的有关评估内容进行了综合分析。SROCC评估得到的最新结果显示：气候变化背景下冰冻圈变化引起的山体滑坡、雪崩和冰川洪水事件频发。海洋有关的海洋热浪频发,极端El Niño事件加强,大西洋经向翻转环流减弱。同时,沿海地区极端海平面上升,极端海浪增高,极端热带气旋影响增加。这些变化,比如海洋热浪等,是可以归因于人为增暖的。预估结果表明,海洋和冰冻圈变化引起的极端事件未来会进一步加剧。而这些变化已经影响了高山、极地以及沿海地区人群的生产和生活,以及海洋和冰冻圈的生态系统服务功能。应对这一系列变化,需要更加精准的预测和预警,包括对极端事件和突变的季节预测和年际、年代际预测,以便做好充足的准备来降低极端事件风险。同时,加强应对极端事件的科普教育和提供因地制宜的灾害重建措施等也是风险管理的重要环节。

关键词: 海洋, 冰冻圈, 极端事件, 风险管理

Abstract:

IPCC special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate (SROCC) was formally approved at the second joint session of working groups I and II of the IPCC and accepted by the 51st session of the IPCC on 24 September 2019. Assessment content related to extreme event, abrupt change and its impact and risk of ocean and cryosphere in SROCC is synthesized in this paper. Based on new assessment results in SROCC, it is indicated that extreme events of ocean and cryosphere have become more frequently, and their intensity has increased. The frequency of landslides, snow avalanches and floods events caused by changes in cryosphere has increased. Marine heat wave happens more frequently. Extreme El Niño events become more intense. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has weakened. In coastal areas, extreme sea level and extreme wave height have increased, and the impact of extreme tropical cyclones has amplified. Those changes, such as marine heat wave, can be attributed to anthropogenic temperature increase. Furthermore, changes in ocean and cryosphere related extreme events are projected to be exacerbated. Those changes can have severe impacts on lives and livelihoods in high mountain, polar and coastal community, and on ocean and cryosphere ecosystem service function. Better prediction and early warning systems, including seasonal prediction system, annual to decadal prediction system of extreme events and abrupt change, are needed to be well-prepared to reduce extreme events risk. What’s more, improved scientific understanding and technical capacities of extreme events and suitable post-recovery and reconstruction are also key points in risk management.

Key words: Ocean, Cryosphere, Extreme event, Risks management

余荣,翟盘茂. 海洋和冰冻圈变化有关的极端事件、突变及其影响与风险[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(2): 194-202.

YU Rong,ZHAI Pan-Mao. Ocean and cryosphere change related extreme events, abrupt change and its impact and risk[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(2): 194-202.

图/表 2

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