IPCC SROCC的主要结论和启示

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.275

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

2019年9月,IPCC正式发布《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》（SROCC）,这是IPCC首次以高山地区与极区冰冻圈和海洋为主题的评估报告。报告全面评估气候变化背景下海洋和冰冻圈变化及其广泛影响与风险,其核心结论包括：气候系统变暖背景下高山地区和极区的冰冻圈普遍退缩,未来冰冻圈将继续消融,高山地区和极区将面临更高的灾害风险;20世纪70年代以来全球海洋持续增暖,未来海洋将继续变暖、加速酸化,影响海洋生物多样性并危及海洋生态系统服务功能和人类社会;近几十年全球平均海平面加速上升,未来数百年海平面仍将持续上升,极端海面事件频发将加剧沿海地区社会-生态系统的灾害风险。报告强调,采取及时、积极、协调和持久的适应与减缓行动,是有效应对海洋和冰冻圈变化,实现气候恢复力发展路径和可持续发展目标的关键所在。本研究认为,需要高度重视海洋和冰冻圈在气候系统变化中的长期和不可逆影响,强化应对气候变化紧迫性认识;高度重视我国冰冻圈和沿海地区面临的气候风险,强化适应能力建设;推动我国牵头的国际大科学计划,强化跨学科、跨领域协同创新,持续提升我国在相关领域的国际影响力和科技支撑能力。

关键词: 气候变化, 海洋, 冰冻圈, 影响, 风险, 应对选择

Abstract:

In September 2019, IPCC released the special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate (SROCC), as the third special report of the IPCC’s sixth assessment cycle, and the IPCC’s first assessment report on the theme of ocean and cryosphere in high mountain areas and polar regions. SROCC provides comprehensive assessments on the physical changes of the ocean and cryosphere in the context of climate change and worldwide impacts and risks, the core findings are as follows: global warming has led to widespread shrinking of the cryosphere, which projected to continue, and high mountain areas and polar regions will face increased disaster risks. Global ocean has warmed unabated since 1970, and the ocean is projected to unprecedented conditions with increased temperature and further acidification, which has been impacting marine biodiversity and threatening marine ecosystem services and human systems. Global mean sea level is rising, with acceleration in recent decades, and projected to continue to rise in the coming hundreds of years, which will worsen the risk of coastal ecosystems, coasts and communities together with frequent occurrence of extreme sea level events. SROCC calls for urgent, active, coordinated and enduring adaptation and mitigation actions that are keys to effectively addressing ocean and cryospheric changes, achieving climate resilient development pathways and sustainable development goals. It is recommended to attach great importance to long-term and irreversible impacts of ocean and cryosphere in climate system change, strengthen the urgency of tackling climate change, promote adaptive capabilities in the terrestrial cryosphere and coastal areas over China, and strengthen interdisciplinary collaborative innovation to continuously enhance China’s international influences and sci-tech support in related fields, achieving the international “big science” plan led by China.

Key words: Climate change, Ocean, Cryosphere, Impacts, Risk, Response options

王朋岭,黄磊,巢清尘,袁佳双,陈超. IPCC SROCC的主要结论和启示[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(2): 133-142.

WANG Peng-Ling,HUANG Lei,CHAO Qing-Chen,YUAN Jia-Shuang,CHEN Chao. The main content and insights of IPCC special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate (SROCC)[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(2): 133-142.

图/表 4

图1 观测和模拟的1950年以来海洋和冰冻圈变化及其高（RCP8.5）、低（RCP2.6）排放情景下的未来变化注：这里的变化相对于1986—2005年,本图根据文献[4]修改。

Fig. 1 Observed and modelled historical changes in the ocean and cryosphere since 1950 and projected future changes under low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios relative to 1986-2005(Modified from [4]) (a) global mean surface pH; (b) change factor in surface ocean marine heatwave days; (c) global ocean heat content change (0?2000 m depth); (d, e, f) Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet, glacier mass loss; (g) global mean ocean oxygen change (100?600 m depth); (h) Arctic sea ice extent change for September; (i) Arctic snow cover extent change for June (land areas north of 60˚N) ; (j) change in near-surface (with 3?4 m) permafrost area in the Northern Hemisphere; (k) global mean sea level change

图2 观测到的海洋变化及其影响[4] 注：*表示东边界上升流区（本格拉寒流、加那利寒流、加利福尼亚寒流和秘鲁寒流）。

Fig. 2 Synthesis of observed regional impacts from changes in the ocean[4]

图3 区域海平面上升对沿岸地区极端海面事件的影响[4] (a) RCP8.5和(b) RCP2.6情景下百年一遇极端海面事件转变为一年一遇的年份预估,(c) RCP8.5和RCP2.6情景下转变年份的差异分布

Fig. 3 The effect of regional sea-level rise on extreme sea level events at costal locations, year when Historical Centennial Events (HCEs) are projected to recur once per year on average under (a) RCP8.5 and (b) RCP2.6; (c) difference between RCP8.5 and RCP2.6[4]

表1 应对平均海平面和极端海面上升的措施选择[4]

Tab.1 Response to rising mean and extreme sea-levels[4]

参考文献

[1]	IPCC. Special report on global warming of 1.5℃[M]. UK: Cambridge University Press, 2018
[2]	IPCC. Climate change and land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems [M/OL]. 2019 [ 2019-11-02]. https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/
[3]	朱松丽, 蔡博峰, 朱建华 , 等. IPCC国家温室气体清单指南精细化的主要内容和启示[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018,14(1):86-94. DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.146.
[3]	Zhu S L, Cai B F, Zhu J F , et al. The main content and insights of 2019 refinements to IPCC 2006 Guidelines[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018,14(1):86-94. DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.146 (in Chinese)
[4]	IPCC. Summary for policymakers [M/OL]//IPCC. IPCC special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate. 2019 [ 2019-11-03]. https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/
[5]	IPCC. Sixth assessment report (AR6) products: outline of the special report on climate change and oceans and the cryosphere [R/OL]. 2017 [ 2019-10-19]. https://archive.ipcc.ch/meetings/session45/Decision_Outline_SR_Oceans.pdf
[6]	IPBES. Summary for policymakers of the global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services [R/OL]. 2019 [ 2019-10-19].
[7]	Mudryk L, Kushner P, Derksen C , et al. Snow cover response to temperature in observational and climate model ensembles[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2017,44(2):919-926
[8]	Biskaborn B K, Smith S L, Noetzli J , et al. Permafrost is warming at a global scale[J]. Nature Communications, 2019,10:264
[9]	Onarheim I H, Eldevik T, Smedsrud L H , et al. Seasonal and regional manifestation of Arctic sea ice loss[J]. Journal of Climate, 2018,31(12):4917-4932
[10]	Hock R, Bliss A, Marzeion B , et al. GlacierMIP: a model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 2019,65(251):453-467
[11]	Bulthuis K, Arnst M, Sun S , et al. Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change[J]. The Cryosphere, 2019,13(4):1349-1380
[12]	Watson C S, King O . Everest’s thinning glaciers: implications for tourism and mountaineering[J]. Geology Today, 2018,34(1):18-25
[13]	Cheng L, Trenberth K E, Fasullo J , et al. Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015[J]. Science Advances, 2017,3(3):e1601545
[14]	Johnson D, Adelaide Ferreira M, L. Kenchington E. Climate change is likely to severely limit the effectiveness of deep-sea ABMTs in the North Atlantic[J]. Marine Policy, 2018,87:111-122
[15]	Oliver E C J, Donat M G, Burrows M T , et al. Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century[J]. Nature Communications, 2018,9(1):1324. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-03732-9
[16]	Paerl H W, Otten T G, Kudela R . Mitigating the expansion of harmful algal blooms across the freshwater-to-marine continuum[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2018,52(10):5519-5529
[17]	Frölicher T L, Laufkötter C . Emerging risks from marine heat waves[J]. Nature Communications, 2018,9(1):650. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-03163-6
[18]	Jackson L C, Kahana R, Graham T , et al. Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2015,45(11-12):3299-3316
[19]	WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group. Global sea-level budget 1993-present[J]. Earth System Science Data, 2018,10(3):1551-1590
[20]	Lickley M J, Hay C C, Tamisiea M E , et al. Bias in estimates of global mean sea level change inferred from satellite altimetry[J]. Journal of Climate, 2018,31(13):5263-5271
[21]	Young I R, Ribal A . Multiplatform evaluation of global trends in wind speed and wave height[J]. Science, 2019,364(6440):548-552
[22]	Sippo J Z, Lovelocj C E, Santos I R , et al. Mangrove mortality in a changing climate: an overview[J]. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 2018,125:241-249
[23]	Perry C T, Alvarez-Filip L, Graham N A J , et al. Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level[J]. Nature, 2018,558(7710):396-400
[24]	Le Cozannet G, Manceau J C, Rohmer J . Bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2017,12(1):014012
[25]	Wahl T, Haigh I D, Nicholls R J , et al. Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis[J]. Nature Communications, 2017,8:16075. DOI: 10.1038/ncomms16075
[26]	Vousdoukas M I, Mentaschi L, Voukouvalas E , et al. Climatic and socioeconomic controls of future coastal flood risk in Europe[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2018,8(9):776-780
[27]	Rasul G, Molden D . The global social and economic consequences of mountain cryopsheric change[J]. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 2019,7. DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2019.00091
[28]	Warrick O, Aalbersberg W, Dumaru P , et al. The ‘Pacific adaptive capacity analysis framework’: guiding the assessment of adaptive capacity in Pacific island communities[J]. Regional Environmental Change, 2017,17(4):1039-1051
[29]	Holsman K, Samhouri J, Cook G , et al. An ecosystem-based approach to marine risk assessment[J]. Ecosystem Health and Sustainability, 2017,3(1). DOI: 10.1002/ehs2.1256
[30]	Lawrence J, Bell R, Blackett P , et al. National guidance for adapting to coastal hazards and sea-level rise: anticipating change, when and how to change pathway[J]. Environmental Science & Policy, 2018,82:100-107
[31]	Czerniewicz L, Goodier S, Morrell R . Southern knowledge online? Climate change research discoverability and communication practices[J]. Information, Communication & Society, 2017,20(3):386-405
[32]	Qin D H, Ding Y J, Xiao C D , et al. Cryospheric science: research framework and disciplinary system[J]. National Science Review, 2018,5(2):255-268
[33]	Kopp R E, Shwom R L, Wagner G , et al. Tipping elements and climate-economic shocks: pathways toward integrated assessment[J]. Earth’s Future, 2016,4(8):346-372
[34]	Schuur E A G, McGuire A D, Schaedel C , et al. Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback[J]. Nature, 2015,520(7546):171-179
[35]	Steffen W, Rockstrom J, Richardson K , et al. Trajectories of the earth system in the anthropocene[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2018,115(33):8252-8259
[36]	Mackey B, Ware D. Limits to capital works adaptation in the coastal zones and islands: lessons for the pacific. In: limits to climate change adaptation [M]. Springer International Publishing, 2018: 301-323
[37]	Zou D F, Zhao L, Sheng Y , et al. A new map of permafrost distribution on the Tibetan Plateau[J]. The Cryosphere, 2017,11:2527-2542
[38]	Guo W Q, Liu S Y, Li X , et al. The second Chinese glacier inventory: data, methods and resultss[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 2015,61(226):357-372
[39]	中国气象局气候变化中心. 中国气候变化蓝皮书(2019)[R]. 北京, 2019.
[39]	Climate Change Center of China Meteorological Administration. China Blue Book on climate change (2019) [R]. Beijing, 2019 ( in Chinese)
[40]	姚檀栋, 邬光剑, 徐柏青 , 等. “亚洲水塔”变化与影响[J]. 中国科学院院刊, 2019,34(11):1203-1209.
[40]	Yao T D, Wu G J, Xu B Q , et al. Asian water tower change and its impacts[J]. Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2019,34(11):1203-1209 (in Chinese)
[41]	Immerzeel W W, Lutz A F, Baillie J E M , et al. Importance and vulnerability of the world’s water towers[J]. Nature, 2019. DOI: org/10.1038/s41586-019-1822-y