对地球系统模式与综合评估模型双向耦合问题的探讨

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.166

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (4): 335-342.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.166

• 气候系统变化 • 下一篇

对地球系统模式与综合评估模型双向耦合问题的探讨

杨世莉¹,董文杰²(),丑洁明³,刘昌新⁴

1 北京市气象探测中心,北京 100089
2 中山大学大气科学学院,广州 510275
3 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京 100875
4 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京 100190

收稿日期:2018-11-26 修回日期:2019-02-27 出版日期:2019-07-30 发布日期:2019-07-30
通讯作者: 董文杰 E-mail:dongwj3@mail.sysu.edu.cn
作者简介:杨世莉,女,工程师
基金资助:
全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2016YFA0602703);国家自然科学基金(41605036)

Research progress for the bidirectional coupling of the Earth system model and integrated assessment model

Shi-Li YANG¹,Wen-Jie DONG²(),Jie-Ming CHOU³,Chang-Xin LIU⁴

1 Beijing Meteorological Observation Centre, Beijing 100089, China
2 Atmospheric Science School, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
3 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
4 Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

Received:2018-11-26 Revised:2019-02-27 Online:2019-07-30 Published:2019-07-30
Contact: Wen-Jie DONG E-mail:dongwj3@mail.sysu.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

概述了地球系统模式和综合评估模型在研究人类活动与气候变化问题上的优势和劣势,明确了将二者进行双向耦合的必要性,客观分析了综合评估模型耦合过程中存在的主要问题,同时系统总结了国际和国内解决耦合难点的主要方法和最新进展,最后分析和讨论了双向耦合模式的不确定性来源和解决方法,为我国进行地球系统模式与综合评估模型双向耦合提供新思路和方法。

关键词: 综合评估模型, 地球系统模式, 双向耦合, 人类活动, 气候变化

Abstract:

This paper summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of the Earth system model (ESM) and integrated assessment model (IAM) in investigating the human activities and climate change, and then clarifies the necessity of bidirectional coupling of these two kinds of models. The main difficulties in the bidirectional coupling process are objectively analyzed, and the methods and latest development in solving the coupling difficulties are also summarized at the international and domestic levels, and the uncertainty of bidirectional coupling and the method to solve the uncertainty are discussed in the last part. This paper provides a new guidance for the bidirectional coupling between the ESM and IAM in China.

Key words: Integrated assessment model (IAM), Earth system model (ESM), Bidirectional coupling, Human activities, Climate change

杨世莉,董文杰,丑洁明,刘昌新. 对地球系统模式与综合评估模型双向耦合问题的探讨[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(4): 335-342.

Shi-Li YANG,Wen-Jie DONG,Jie-Ming CHOU,Chang-Xin LIU. Research progress for the bidirectional coupling of the Earth system model and integrated assessment model[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(4): 335-342.

图/表 2

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对地球系统模式与综合评估模型双向耦合问题的探讨

Research progress for the bidirectional coupling of the Earth system model and integrated assessment model

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