面向福祉和公平的需求侧减排路径、潜力与政策

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.072

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

需求侧减排是协同实现碳中和目标与民生福祉、社会公平改善的重要抓手,也是以“人”为中心连接不同可持续发展目标的关键纽带。IPCC第六次评估报告首次独立成章（第五章）介绍应对气候变化的需求侧解决方案。报告将需求侧减排与福祉、公平等目标关联起来,依循“避免-转变-改进（ASI）”的战略框架,梳理了需求侧的减排措施和减排潜力;揭示了社会文化、心理活动、技术水平和基础设施等因素对需求侧减排的关键驱动作用,指出多种驱动因素之间相互依赖,呈现叠加效应;明确了激发需求侧减排的动力和能力需要科学的行为干预和政策设计以推动系统性变革。文中对该章主要结论做扼要解读,同时就该章节对中国的相关研究和政策启示展开讨论。

关键词: 需求侧减排, 避免-转变-改进（ASI）, 体面生活水平, 社会文化, 行为干预

Abstract:

Demand-side mitigation is a critical pathway to achieving carbon neutrality, wellbeing for all, and social equity coordinatively, since it puts “people” at the center of decision and links various Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) together. The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presents an independent chapter (Chapter 5) to address the demand, services, and social aspects of mitigation for the first time. The report links demand-side mitigation with multiple social sustainable development goals and clarifies that the demand-side mitigation targets include not only climate change tackling but also wellbeing and equity improvement. It collects hundreds of demand-side mitigation measures by the “Avoid-Shift-Increase (ASI)” framework and presents the associated mitigation potential. Furthermore, key driving factors of demand-side mitigation, including social culture, psychological activities, technology, and infrastructure, are investigated, as well as the interlinkages among the driving factors. Last but not least, multiple behavioral interventions and policy designs are presented o enhance the motivation and the capacity of demand-side mitigation. This article briefly interprets the main conclusions of IPCC AR6 Chapter 5 and discusses its research and policy implications for China.

Key words: Demand-side mitigation, Avoid-Shift-Improve (ASI), Decent living standards, Social-culture, Behavioral interventions

郑馨竺, 董馨阳, 王灿. 面向福祉和公平的需求侧减排路径、潜力与政策[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(5): 546-556.

ZHENG Xin-Zhu, DONG Xin-Yang, WANG Can. Demand-side mitigation pathways, potential, and policies for wellbeing and equity[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(5): 546-556.

图/表 4

图1 福祉、公平、信任、治理和减缓气候变化之间的正向反馈[1] 注：全民福祉逐渐成为经济可持续发展的主要目标之一,它通过一个连接了治理、信任、公平和公众参与的正反馈网络来强化减排。箭头的宽度对应于最近社会科学文献的信心水平和证据力度。

Fig. 1 Positive feedbacks among well-being, equity, trust, governance and climate change mitigation[1]. (Well-being for all is gradually becoming one of the main goals of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG), which reinforces emission reductions through a positive feedback network linking governance, trust, equity and public participation. The width of arrows equals to the level of confidence and strength of evidence in recent social science literature)

图2 基于已有文献整理的60种需求侧减排措施[6] 注：负值（红色区域）表示反弹效应,即采用该措施反而导致碳排放增加。措施按减排潜力的中位值排序。

Fig. 2 Sixty demand-side mitigation measures on the basis of existing literature[6]. (Sorted by median value of mitigation potential. × mark indicates the mean value. Box plots show the lower quartile, median and upper quartile of the measure’s mitigation potential estimated by the literature. The short lines indicate the maximum and minimum mitigation potentials. Negative values (red area) indicate that the rebound effect of the measure to lead to an increase in carbon emissions)

图3 需求侧减排的行为干预及政策工具注：图片为作者根据IPCC AR6第五章内容整理。

Fig. 3 Behavioral interventions and policy tools for demand-side mitigation. (The authors made the figure according to IPCC AR6)

图4 需求侧减排的已有科学认识和待解决的科学问题注：图片为作者根据IPCC AR6第五章内容整理。

Fig. 4 Existing cognition of demand-side mitigation and scientific problems to be solved. (The authors organize according to IPCC AR6)

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