IPCC AR6报告解读：气候变化与水安全

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.051

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

保障水安全是应对和缓解气候变化的核心问题,也是实现可持续发展的前提。IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第二工作组报告单独设立第四章“水”,分析了气候变化对全球水循环的影响,评估了水循环变化对人类社会和生态系统的影响,指出了当前与未来的水安全风险,分析了与水相关适应措施的收益与成效。报告显示,人类活动导致的气候变化加速了全球水文循环,对水安全产生负面影响,面临水安全风险的人口与地区增多,并增加了由社会经济因素造成的水资源脆弱性。水安全风险随全球升温水平的升高而增加,在水安全脆弱地区表现更为显著。将全球升温限制在1.5℃可有效降低未来的水安全风险,有助于实现水安全、可持续发展和具有气候恢复力的发展三重目标。我国水安全问题突出,急需在“灰-绿”基础设施生态水文效应、三维水资源短缺、水-粮食-能源耦合、地球系统模拟器研发应用等方面重点开展研究工作。

关键词: IPCC AR6, 水循环, 水安全, 水资源短缺, 适应对策

Abstract:

Water security is the centrality in adapting and mitigating climate change. It is also critical in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), Working Group II established Chapter 4 of “Water”. This Chapter assesses observed and projected climate-induced changes in the water cycle, their current impacts and future risks on human and natural systems. This chapter also assesses the current and future water scarcity risks, the benefits and effectiveness of water-related adaptations. The assessment results show that human-induced climate change has led to an accelerated global hydrological cycle, thereby affecting water security and exacerbating water-related vulnerabilities. Water-related risks are projected to increase with every degree of global warming, especially in more vulnerable and exposed regions. Limiting global warming to 1.5℃ would effectively reduce future water-related risks, and contribute to meet the triple goals of water security, sustainable and climate-resilient development. China is experiencing high water security risks, and has a grand societal demand on scientific and technological advancements in water security. In future, water security research needs to emphasize the ecological and hydrological effects of gray and green infrastructure, three-dimensional water scarcity assessment, water-food-energy nexus, and the development and application of Earth System Simulators.

Key words: IPCC AR6, Water cycle, Water security, Water scarcity, Adaptations

刘俊国, 陈鹤, 田展. IPCC AR6报告解读：气候变化与水安全[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(4): 405-413.

LIU Junguo, CHEN He, TIAN Zhan. Interpretation of IPCC AR6: climate change and water security[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(4): 405-413.

图/表 3

图1 IPCC AR6第二工作组报告第四章结构简图注：本图引自IPCC AR6 WGII第四章图4.1。

Fig. 1 Conceptual framework of Chapter 4 of AR6 Working Group II

图2 当前全球水安全指数及其组成要素的空间分布状况注：“全球水安全指数”（GWSI）是水资源可获取性、水质安全、水设施可达性与水资源管理水平4个指标加权平均后的综合指数;全球水安全指数的值越高,代表当地水安全水平越高,面临的水安全风险越低。本图引自IPCC AR6 WGII第四章图4.1.2。

Fig. 2 Geographical distributions of Global Water Security Index (GWSI) and its components for the present day. (A lower value of GWSI represents a low level of water security)

图3 当前全球水资源短缺状况(a)与到2050年解决水资源短缺面临的政策挑战(b) 注：本图引自IPCC AR6 WGII第四章图4.1.1。

Fig. 3 Geographical distributions of current water scarcity (a) and levels of challenge for policies addressing future change (b)

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