碳中和目标下中国燃煤电厂CCUS集群部署优化研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.258

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (3): 261-271.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.258

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碳中和目标下中国燃煤电厂CCUS集群部署优化研究

陈文会¹^,², 鲁玺²^,³^,⁴()

1 北京化工大学经济管理学院,北京 100029
2 清华大学环境学院/环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室, 北京 100084
3 清华大学碳中和研究院,北京 100084
4 清华大学环境前沿技术北京实验室,北京 100084

收稿日期:2021-11-08 修回日期:2021-12-26 出版日期:2022-05-30 发布日期:2022-04-20
通讯作者: 鲁玺
作者简介:陈文会,女,讲师。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(72104116);国家自然科学基金项目(72025401);国家自然科学基金项目(71974108);国家自然科学基金项目(72140003);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(21YJC630009);清华大学-INDITEX 可持续发展基金

The optimal layout of CCUS clusters in China’s coal-fired power plants towards carbon neutrality

CHEN Wen-Hui¹^,², LU Xi²^,³^,⁴()

1 School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
2 School of Environment, State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
3 Institute for Carbon Neutrality, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
4 Beijing Laboratory of Environmental Frontier Technologies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

Received:2021-11-08 Revised:2021-12-26 Online:2022-05-30 Published:2022-04-20
Contact: LU Xi

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

燃煤电厂作为中国最大的CO₂排放源,是中国实现碳中和目标的关键点。CO₂捕集、利用与封存（CCUS）技术是目前煤电行业实现深度减排的唯一途径,碳约束情景下,CCUS技术将在实现煤电碳达峰、碳中和目标中发挥不可或缺的作用。研究中首先使用综合环境控制模型（IECM）对燃煤电厂捕集技术环节的成本构成和经济性进行核算,得到中国燃煤电厂逐厂CO₂捕集成本和捕集量;其次,基于地质利用封存潜力及分布特征,构建CCUS源汇匹配优化模型,得到碳中和目标下的煤电CCUS项目分阶段布局方案;最后,以优化基础设施建设并通过规模经济降低成本为前提,使用聚类分析方法对煤电CCUS项目集群进行识别,进一步构建改进成本最小生成树模型,得到CCUS项目集群最低成本CO₂输送管道网络的路线优化策略。研究表明：碳中和目标约束下,需要对总装机容量约为355 GW的300个燃煤电厂进行CCUS技术改造,2030—2060年间可实现累积减排190.11 亿t CO₂。煤电CCUS项目集群主要分布在华中、华北和西北地区,通过建立CCUS枢纽以实现CO₂运输基础设施共享,在松辽盆地、渤海湾盆地、苏北盆地和鄂尔多斯盆地优先开展CCUS早期集成示范项目,能显著降低运输成本,推动CCUS技术大规模、商业化发展。

关键词: CO₂捕集、利用与封存（CCUS）, 源汇匹配优化, 产业集群, 优化布局路径

Abstract:

As the largest carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission source in China, decarbonization of coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) is crucial for China to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) is currently the only technology choice to realize deep cut in CO₂ emissions from CFPPs. The Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) is applied to calculate the cost and CO₂ capture of the selected CFPPs with CCUS. Based on the distribution patterns and potential of CO₂ storage sites, an optimal source-sink matching assessment model is applied to evaluate the priority CCUS layout scheme under the carbon neutrality target. In order to optimize infrastructure construction and reduce costs through economies of scale, the cluster analysis is applied to identify the CCUS cluster-hub. Then, the improved minimum spanning tree method is used to obtain the optimization strategy of CO₂ transport pipeline networks for above CCUS cluster-hub projects. To achieve carbon neutrality goal of the power sector, 300 existing CFPPs with an installed capacity of approximately 355 GW are required to be retrofitted by CCUS. The cumulative CO₂ emissions reduction potential of these CFPPs with CCUS is 19 Gt. By the development of industrial hubs with shared CO₂ transport and storage infrastructures, the total pipeline length and the total CO₂ transport cost could be reduced largely. The CCUS clusters of CFPPs are mainly distributed in Central, North and Northwest China and matched with the Songliao Basin, Bohai Bay Basin, Subei Basin and Ordos Basin which are considered as the priority areas for the implementation of the CCUS projects.

Key words: Carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS), Optimal source-sink matching, CCUS clusters, Optimal layout

陈文会, 鲁玺. 碳中和目标下中国燃煤电厂CCUS集群部署优化研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(3): 261-271.

CHEN Wen-Hui, LU Xi. The optimal layout of CCUS clusters in China’s coal-fired power plants towards carbon neutrality[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(3): 261-271.

图/表 6

图1 2020年现役300 MW规模以上燃煤电厂CCUS改造的捕集成本和分布

Fig. 1 CO2 captured cost and spatial distribution of running coal-fired power plants above 300 MW with CCUS

图2 不同阶段燃煤电厂CO2捕集规模在电网的分布情况

Fig. 2 The distribution of selected coal-fired power plants with CO2 capture in power grids in different time periods

图3 2030—2050年点对点CO2管道长度与运输量

Fig. 3 Length and transportation volume of point-to-point CO2 pipeline during 2030-2050

图4 2030—2035年期间运输捕集的CO2管道网络部署路径

Fig. 4 The deployment path of CO2 pipeline network for captured CO2 transport during 2030-2035

图5 2035—2040年期间运输捕集的CO2管道网络部署路径

Fig. 5 The deployment path of CO2 pipeline network for captured CO2 transport during 2035-2040

图6 2040—2045年期间运输捕集的CO2管道网络部署路径

Fig. 6 The deployment path of CO2 pipeline network for captured CO2 transport during 2040-2045

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碳中和目标下中国燃煤电厂CCUS集群部署优化研究

The optimal layout of CCUS clusters in China’s coal-fired power plants towards carbon neutrality

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