IPCC AR6解读：全球和区域海平面变化的监测和预估

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.231

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (1): 12-18.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.231

所属专题： IPCC第六次评估报告WGI解读专栏

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IPCC AR6解读：全球和区域海平面变化的监测和预估

张通¹(), 俞永强²^,³, 效存德¹(), 华莉娟⁴, 闫展¹

1 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京 100875
2 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG),北京 100029
3 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
4 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室(LASW),北京 100081

收稿日期:2021-10-08 修回日期:2021-10-25 出版日期:2022-01-30 发布日期:2021-11-17
通讯作者: 效存德
作者简介:张通,男,副教授, tzhang@bnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家海洋局极地考察办公室极地科学协同创新平台项目(CXPT2020006);国家重点研发计划“格陵兰冰盖监测、模拟与气候影响研究”(2018YFC1406100);北京师范大学人才引进项目“冰冻圈影响区承载力和恢复力研究”(12807-312232101)

Interpretation of IPCC AR6 report: monitoring and projections of global and regional sea level change

ZHANG Tong¹(), YU Yong-Qiang²^,³, XIAO Cun-De¹(), HUA Li-Juan⁴, YAN Zhan¹

1 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
3 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
4 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2021-10-08 Revised:2021-10-25 Online:2022-01-30 Published:2021-11-17
Contact: XIAO Cun-De

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

IPCC第六次评估报告第一工作组报告第九章综合评估了与海平面相关的最新监测和数值模拟结果,指出目前（2006—2018年）的海平面上升速率处于加速状态（3.7 mm/a),并会在未来持续上升,且呈现不可逆的趋势。其中低排放情景（SSP1-1.9）和高排放情景（SSP5-8.5）下,到2050年,预估全球平均海平面（GMSL）分别上升0.15~0.23 m和0.20~0.30 m;到2100年,预估GMSL分别上升0.28~0.55 m和0.63~1.02 m。南极冰盖不稳定性是影响未来海平面上升预估的最大不确定性来源之一。区域海平面变化是影响沿海极端静水位的重要因素。

关键词: 全球平均海平面（GMSL）, 区域极端海平面, 冰盖变化, 海洋动力过程

Abstract:

In the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, the latest monitoring and simulation results indicate that the current rate of sea level rise is accelerating (3.7 mm/a) and will continue to rise in the future, showing an irreversible trend. Under low emission scenarios (SSP1-1.9) and high emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5), global mean sea level (GMSL) is projected to rise by 0.15-0.23 m and 0.20-0.30 m by 2050, respectively. By 2100, GMSL is projected to rise 0.28-0.55 m and 0.63-1.02 m, respectively. Antarctica ice sheet instabilities are significant sources of uncertainty affecting future sea level rise projections. Regional relative sea level rise is an important driving factor affecting extreme still water levels.

Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI) and Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI) and the acceleration of ice streams will increase the estimated GMSL in the future. After 2100, with the continuous heat uptake of deep ocean and the continuous loss of ice sheet mass, sea level rise will last for thousands of years (high reliability).

A major deficiency of present-day sea-level studies is the prediction of high sea-level scenarios at the end of the 21st century. Under the impacts of climate warming and polar amplification effect, the collapse of Antarctic ice shelf may accelerate. The intensification of hydrofracturing process and ocean stratification can increase the melting on and beneath the ice shelf, respectively. However, these physical processes have not been well implemented in the models.

By the end of the 21st century, the tidal amplitude in most coastal regions of the world will change significantly. Human factors such as land reclamation and different land management policies in coastal areas will affect the impact of global sea level rise on tidal amplitude. Therefore, the impact of ice sheets on global and regional sea level changes has important practical and long-term significance for China’s future coastal infrastructure and ecological environment protection.

Key words: Global mean sea level (GMSL), Regional extreme sea level, Ice sheet change, Marine dynamic processes

张通, 俞永强, 效存德, 华莉娟, 闫展. IPCC AR6解读：全球和区域海平面变化的监测和预估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(1): 12-18.

ZHANG Tong, YU Yong-Qiang, XIAO Cun-De, HUA Li-Juan, YAN Zhan. Interpretation of IPCC AR6 report: monitoring and projections of global and regional sea level change[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(1): 12-18.

图/表 2

图1 不同共享社会经济路径（SSP）情景下预估的全球平均海平面增幅（相对于1995—2014年）

Fig. 1 The projected global mean sea level rise (GMSL) under different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios(relative to 1995-2014)

表1 以1995—2014年为基准不同SSP情景下预估的2030—2100年全球平均海平面上升量及速率（AR6报告表9.9）

Table 1 The projected global mean sea level rise (GMSL) and the rate under different shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios during 2030-2100 with a baseline of 1995-2014 (Table 9.9 in AR6) m

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IPCC AR6解读：全球和区域海平面变化的监测和预估

Interpretation of IPCC AR6 report: monitoring and projections of global and regional sea level change

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