气候变化研究进展 ›› 2021, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (6): 744-752.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.021

• 对策论坛 • 上一篇    下一篇

应对气候变化南南合作优先合作国家选择方法探讨

王谋1,2(), 康文梅3(), 张莹1,2   

  1. 1 中国社会科学院生态文明研究所,北京 100710
    2 中国社会科学院可持续发展研究中心,北京 100732
    3 中国社会科学院大学,北京 102488
  • 收稿日期:2021-02-18 修回日期:2021-04-19 出版日期:2021-11-30 发布日期:2021-11-02
  • 通讯作者: 康文梅
  • 作者简介:王谋,男,研究员, wangmou@vip.163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目“我国参与国际气候谈判角色定位的动态分析与谈判策略研究”(16AGJ011);中国社会科学院创新工程项目“碳达峰、碳中和目标背景下的绿色发展战略研究”(2021STSB01)

Discussion on the method of selecting priority aid countries for South-South Cooperation to address climate change

WANG Mou1,2(), KANG Wen-Mei3(), ZHANG Ying1,2   

  1. 1 Research Institute for Eco-civilization, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100710, China
    2 Research Center for Sustainable Development, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100732, China
    3 University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 102488, China
  • Received:2021-02-18 Revised:2021-04-19 Online:2021-11-30 Published:2021-11-02
  • Contact: KANG Wen-Mei

摘要:

应对气候变化南南合作是中国领导人在巴黎气候大会上的庄严承诺,也是体现“十九大”会议精神“成为全球生态文明建设的重要参与者、贡献者、引领者”的具体实践。作为我国重要的对外援助方案,相关研究还比较缺乏。实践中对外援助国的选择通常是根据领导人出访地和一些重要国际会议举办地等确定,缺乏系统性、连续性,这也符合对外援助初级阶段的特征。为了更加高效、系统地推进气候变化南南合作持续开展,产生更好的环境和社会效益,文中基于定量评估的方法学对南南合作优先合作国家的选择开展了讨论。通过专家集体打分与层次分析法确定评价指标及权重,采用阶段阈值法将不同国家在评估指标上的表现转化为定量分值,并进行国家综合得分计算和排名。计算结果显示,南非、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚等国位于潜在受援国前五位,文中还列出了建议优先合作的20个国家及位序。总体来看,排名前20的受援国均属于联合国机制下77+中国集团,90%为“一带一路”倡议参与国,70%是亚投行成员国,评估结论与中国发起的重大合作倡议具有高度的相关性,不仅可以支持应对气候变化南南合作开展,也能呼应和推动中国主导的其他国际议程发展。本文尝试在传统的定性描述和评估为主的领域,引入定量评估研究方法,在研究方法学应用上进行拓展。论文研究结论可以为相关部门选择应对气候变化南南合作优先合作国家提供参考。

关键词: 气候变化, 南南合作, 优先合作国家, 对外援助

Abstract:

South-South Cooperation to address climate change is a solemn promise made by Chinese Leader at the Paris Climate Conference. It is also a concrete practice that embodies the spirit of the Nineteen Major Conferences, “to be a participant, contributor and leader of global ecological civilization”. As an important foreign aid program of China, there is a lack of relevant research. In practice, the choice of foreign aid countries is usually based on the leaders’ visiting places and some important international conferences, which is lack of systematism and continuity, being also in line with the characteristics of the primary stage of foreign aid. In order to promote the sustainable development of South-South Cooperation to address climate change more efficiently and systematically, and produce better environmental and social benefits, a methodological discussion was carried out on the selection of priority aid countries for South-South Cooperation based on quantitative assessment in this paper. The evaluation index and weight were determined by expert collective scoring and analytic hierarchy process. The stage threshold method was used to convert the performance of different countries in the evaluation index into quantitative score, and the comprehensive score and ranking of countries were calculated. The results show that South Africa, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia and Indonesia are among the top five priority aid countries, and 20 priority aid countries are listed. In general, the top 20 priority aid countries belong to the 77+ China Group under the United Nations mechanism, 90% of them are participating countries in the “Belt and Road” Initiative, and 70% are members of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. The assessment conclusions are consistent with the major cooperation initiatives initiated by China. The high degree of relevance can not only support the development of South-South Cooperation to address climate change, but also echo and promote the development of other international agendas led by China. This paper attempts to introduce quantitative evaluation research methods in the traditional qualitative description and evaluation fields, and expand the application of research methodology. The conclusions of the paper can provide reference for relevant departments to choose priority aid countries for South-South Cooperation to address climate change.

Key words: Climate change, South-South Cooperation, Priority aid countries, Foreign aid

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