基于脱钩指数和LMDI的青海省绿色低碳发展策略研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.216

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

推动青海省绿色低碳转型发展,既是推进黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的迫切需要,也有助于缓解我国应对气候变化和碳减排工作压力。采用Tapio脱钩指数和对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)分解法,在分析能源消费及碳排放变化与经济总量增长脱钩关系的基础上,对影响能源消费及碳排放的因素进行了分解研究,提出了推动青海省绿色低碳发展转型的着力点。主要结论：能源消费及碳排放与经济总量增长实现脱钩,且“十三五”时期“喇叭口”现象日益明显;人口和经济增长是能源消费和碳排放增长的主要驱动力;能源强度下降总体上减缓了能源消费和碳排放的增长,与第二产业能源消费强度变化密切相关;能源结构调整有效抑制了碳排放增长,且抑制作用不断增强;产业结构调整缓解能源消费需求的作用全面显现,但还需进一步调整第二产业结构。建议：提高有色金属冶炼、化工以及非金属矿物制品业等传统工业用煤效率和燃煤发电效率;减少对有色金属冶炼、化工等传统工业的过度依赖;推动风、光、水、火、储多能集约高效利用。

关键词: 能源消费, 碳排放, 脱钩指数, 因素分解, 对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI), 青海省

Abstract:

Promoting green and low-carbon development of Qinghai province, is not only an urgent need for promoting ecological conservation and high-quality development of the Yellow River basin, but also the concrete embodiment of China’s efforts to address climate change. In the analysis of analyzing the relationship between energy consumption (energy consumption carbon emission) with GDP, this paper analyzed factor decomposition of changes in energy consumption and carbon emission from 2000 to 2019 in Qinghai province, based on decoupling index and log mean decomposition index (LMDI) decomposition model. Besides, some suggestions were put forward according to the above conclusions. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) Both the change of energy consumption and carbon emission were decoupled from economic growth, especially showing an increasingly bell-mouth phenomenon from the 13th five Year Plan, and the “bell-mouth” phenomenon is increasingly obvious; (2) Population and economic growth were the main drivers of energy consumption and carbon emission growth, among which the promoting effect of economic growth is gradually weakening; (3) The decline in energy intensity generally slowed down the growth of energy consumption and carbon emission, which was closely related to the change of energy intensity in the secondary industry; (4) The adjustment of energy structure, marked by a decrease in the share of coal consumption and a rise in the share of renewable energy consumption, had effectively curbed the growth of carbon emissions. After the problem of renewable energy consumption has been alleviated, the inhibiting effect has been continuously strengthened; (5) The effect of industrial restructuring on inhibiting energy consumption demand had been fully manifested, but it is necessary to further optimize the internal structure of the secondary industry, especially to reduce the energy consumption demand of traditional energy-intensive industries. Recommendations: (1) improve the efficiency of both coal and coal-fired power generation, especially in non-ferrous metal smelting, chemicals and non-metallic mineral products; (2) reduce the over-reliance on traditional energy-intensive industries such as non-ferrous metal smelting and chemical industry, and promote the integrated and coordinated development of traditional industries and strategic emerging industries; (3) make overall plans for local consumption of renewable energy and trans-provincial transmission, build a number of multi-energy complementary integrated optimization demonstration projects, and promote the intensive and efficient use of multi-energy storage of wind, light, water, fire and stored energy.

Key words: Energy consumption, Carbon emission, Decoupling index, Factor decomposition, Log mean decompostion index (LMDI), Qinghai province

王敏, 冯相昭, 安祺, 卓岳, 赵梦雪, 杜晓林, 王鹏. 基于脱钩指数和LMDI的青海省绿色低碳发展策略研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(5): 598-607.

WANG Min, FENG Xiang-Zhao, AN Qi, ZHUO Yue, ZHAO Meng-Xue, DU Xiao-Lin, WANG Peng. Study on green and low-carbon development in Qinghai province based on decoupling index and LMDI[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(5): 598-607.

图/表 10

图1 2000—2019年青海省能源消费总量、碳排放量及GDP(2000年=100)

Fig. 1 Energy consumption, carbon emission and GDP of Qinghai province from 2000 to 2019 (Values in 2000 are equal to 100)

图2 2000—2019年青海省分行业终端能源消费量和能源消费强度

Fig. 2 End energy consumption by sector and energy consumption intensity of Qinghai province from 2000 to 2019

图3 2000—2019年青海省能源消费及碳排放变化与经济总量增长脱钩情况

Fig. 3 The decoupling state between energy consumption (energy consumption carbon emission) with GDP from 2000 to 2019

图4 2000—2019年青海省分品种一次能源生产量占比

Fig. 4 Proportion of primary energy production by variety in Qinghai province during 2000-2019

图5 2000—2019年青海省分品种能源消费量

Fig. 5 Energy consumption by variety in Qinghai province from 2000 to 2019

图6 2000—2019年青海省能源消费总量年际变化影响因素分解注：图中结果为每一年与上一年的对比,2000年没有进行比较,图10同。

Fig. 6 Factors decomposition of energy consumption in Qinghai province from 2000 to 2019

图7 2000—2019年青海省传统高耗能行业占工业GDP比重(a)和占工业能源消费比重(b)

Fig. 7 The proportion of traditional energy-intensive industries accounting for industrial GDP (a) and corresponding energy consumption (b) in Qinghai province from 2000 to 2019

图8 2019年青海省分行业分品种能源流动示意图

Fig. 8 Energy flow both by industry and variety in Qinghai province in 2019

图9 2000—2019年青海省3种化石能源碳排放及碳排放强度

Fig. 9 Three kinds of fossil energy carbon emission and carbon emission intensity in Qinghai province from 2000 to 2019

图10 2000—2019年青海省碳排放年际变化影响因素分解

Fig. 10 Factors decomposition of carbon emissions in Qinghai province from 2000 to 2019

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