中国交通行业实施环境经济政策的协同控制效应研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.028

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2021, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (4): 379-387.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.028

所属专题：减污降碳协同增效专栏

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中国交通行业实施环境经济政策的协同控制效应研究

邢有凯¹^,²(), 刘峥延³, 毛显强¹(), 高玉冰¹^,⁴, 何峰¹^,⁴, 余红⁵

1 北京师范大学环境学院,北京 100875
2 交通运输部规划研究院,交通排放控制监测技术实验室,北京 100028
3 中国宏观经济研究院国土开发与地区经济研究所,北京 100038
4 北京亚太展望环境发展咨询中心,北京 100191
5 中国环境科学研究院,北京 100012

收稿日期:2021-02-23 修回日期:2021-04-22 出版日期:2021-07-30 发布日期:2021-08-11
通讯作者: 毛显强
作者简介:邢有凯,男,高级工程师, xingyoukai@163.com
基金资助:
亚洲开发银行技术援助项目“中国交通行业大气污染与碳排放协同控制战略性政策研究”(51027)

Research on co-control effect of environmental economic policies in China’s transportation sector

XING You-Kai¹^,²(), LIU Zheng-Yan³, MAO Xian-Qiang¹(), GAO Yu-Bing¹^,⁴, HE Feng¹^,⁴, YU Hong⁵

1 School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2 Transport Planning and Research Institute, Ministry of Transport, Laboratory of Transport Pollution Control and Monitoring Technology, Beijing 100028, China
3 Institute of Spatial Planning and Regional Economy, China Academy of Macroeconomic Research, Beijing 100038, China
4 Asia-Pacific Consulting Center for Environment and Development, Beijing 100191, China
5 Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China

Received:2021-02-23 Revised:2021-04-22 Online:2021-07-30 Published:2021-08-11
Contact: MAO Xian-Qiang

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目前,交通行业已成为中国局地大气污染物和温室气体的重要排放来源之一,而且随着交通运输规模的不断扩大,与工业和生活排放相比,交通排放贡献占比呈相对增加趋势。文中构建了“CGE-CIMS联合模型”,对中国交通行业实施环境经济政策的局地大气污染物和CO₂协同控制效应进行量化评估。结果显示,与BAU情景相比,环境税、碳税、成品油消费税以及政策组合情景均促进了交通行业的电力消费替代汽油、柴油等石油制品,即使考虑政策实施后电力消费增加导致的间接排放,各情景下综合大气污染物协同减排量（ICER）仍为正值,即各项环境经济政策均具有较好的协同控制局地大气污染物和CO₂的效果。本文最后提出了包括聚焦高排放交通工具,以补贴低碳交通方式配合绿色税制改革,以及电力行业低碳发展等交通行业实施环境经济政策的配套措施建议。

关键词: 交通行业, 环境经济政策, 协同控制

Abstract:

Transportation sector is one of the key sources of local air pollutants and GHGs emissions in China. Because of rising scale of transportation, the share of emissions from transportation increased compared with those from industrial and residential sources. This research applies an integrated CGE-CIMS model system to quantify the local air pollutants and CO₂ co-control effects of environmental economic policies in China’s transportation sector. Compared with BAU scenario, all environmental economic policy instruments, including environmental tax, carbon tax, fuel oil consumption tax and their policy combinations, will lead to electricity consumption substitution for gasoline, diesel oil and other petroleum products in China’s transportation sector. Even considering the indirect emissions caused by electricity power generation, the comprehensive emission reductions, indicated by Integrated Air Pollutant Co-control Emission Reduction (ICER), are still positive, meaning all environmental economic policies and their policy combinations have co-control effects. This research made policy suggestions for supporting the environmental economic policy implementation in transportation, including focusing on high emission vehicles, applying green transportation subsidies and low carbon electric power development.

Key words: Transportation sector, Environmental economic policies, Co-control

邢有凯, 刘峥延, 毛显强, 高玉冰, 何峰, 余红. 中国交通行业实施环境经济政策的协同控制效应研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(4): 379-387.

XING You-Kai, LIU Zheng-Yan, MAO Xian-Qiang, GAO Yu-Bing, HE Feng, YU Hong. Research on co-control effect of environmental economic policies in China’s transportation sector[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(4): 379-387.

图/表 8

图1 CGE-CIMS联合模型框架

Fig. 1 Integrated CGE-CIMS model system

表1 将局地大气污染物和CO2减排折算为综合大气污染物协同减排量（ICER）的系数

Table 1 Weight coefficients for converting local air pollutants and CO2 into ICER

表2 中国交通行业实施环境经济政策情景设置

Table 2 Scenarios design of environmental economic policies for China’s transportation sector

图2 各情景下2030年中国货运发展情况预测

Fig. 2 Freight development under various scenarios in 2030

表3 各情景下2030年局地大气污染物和CO2协同控制减排当量计算结果

Table 3 Calculation of ICER under various scenarios in 2030

图3 各政策情景下2030年局地大气污染物和CO2协同控制坐标系分布图

Fig. 3 Co-control effects coordinate system analysis results of local air pollutants and CO2 under various policy scenarios in 2030

表4 各政策情景下2030年局地大气污染物与CO2协同控制交叉弹性分析结果

Table 4 Cross-elasticity analysis results of pollutant emission reduction under various policy scenarios in 2030

图4 各情景下2030年UCER排序

Fig. 4 The priority order of UCER under various scenarios in 2030

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中国交通行业实施环境经济政策的协同控制效应研究

Research on co-control effect of environmental economic policies in China’s transportation sector

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