气候变化研究进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (6): 738-747.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.192

• 温室气体排放 • 上一篇    下一篇

城市化、产业结构、能源消费、经济增长与碳排放的关联性分析——基于中国省际收入水平异质性的实证研究

原嫄(), 孙欣彤   

  1. 西北工业大学人文与经法学院,西安 710072
  • 收稿日期:2019-08-15 修回日期:2019-10-16 出版日期:2020-11-30 发布日期:2020-12-03
  • 作者简介:原嫄,女,副教授,paipaidm@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金青年项目(41601117);中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(3102018JCC016)

Exploring the relationship between urbanization, industrial structure, energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions: an empirical study based on the heterogeneity of inter-provincial income levels in China

YUAN Yuan(), SUN Xin-Tong   

  1. School of Humanities, Economics and Laws, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an 710072, China
  • Received:2019-08-15 Revised:2019-10-16 Online:2020-11-30 Published:2020-12-03

摘要:

在全国推崇节能减排,寻求低碳经济发展的大环境下,探究不同收入水平下各影响因子与碳排放的关联性有助于区域异质性碳减排政策的制定。根据2002—2016年的经济发展水平数据,将中国30个省及直辖市(不包含西藏及港、澳、台地区)划分为4个不同收入水平,分别建立面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,并运用面板格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解探究城市化、产业结构、能源消费、经济增长与碳排放之间的关联性。研究结果表明,处于不同收入水平下的省份各影响因子与碳排放之间的关系存在异质性。收入水平较高的省份当前城市化水平已产生显著的减排效应,而欠发达地区仍处于城市化进程加速碳排放阶段;4个收入水平下能源消费均会长期影响碳排放,但欠发达地区更加需要摆脱能源依赖的经济发展路径,并且提高能源利用率从而降低碳排放;非高收入水平省份产业结构对碳排放造成的影响明显高于高收入水平省份。此外,实证结果表明,中国仍处于碳排放与经济发展的同步增长阶段,减排政策将会对经济增长产生负向反馈,故现有减排路径的选择需要高度审慎的设计与实施。

关键词: 城市化, 产业结构, 能源消费, 经济增长, 碳排放, 面板向量自回归(PVAR)

Abstract:

Under the overall environment that the whole country is advocating energy conservation and emission reduction and seeking low-carbon economic development, exploring the correlation between various impact factors and carbon emissions at different income levels is conducive to the formulation of regional heterogeneous carbon emission reduction policies. Based on the data from 2002 to 2016, China's 30 provinces (except Tibet, HongKong, Macao and Taiwan) were divided into four income levels, and a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model was established. Moreover, Granger causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition were used to explore the correlation between urbanization, industrial structure, energy consumption, economic growth and carbon emissions. The results show that there is heterogeneity in the relationship between the impact factors and carbon emissions in the provinces at different income levels. The urbanization of provinces at higher income level has produced significant emission reduction effect, while the less developed areas are still in the stage which urbanization promotes carbon emissions. Energy consumption at all four income levels will affect carbon emissions in the long run. However, less developed areas have a more urgent need for getting rid of energy dependence for economic development, and should improve energy efficiency to reduce carbon emissions. The impact of industrial structure on carbon emissions in non-high-income provinces is significantly higher than that in high-income provinces. In addition, the empirical results show that China is still in the stage of synchronous growth of carbon emission and economic development, and emission reduction policies will generate negative feedback on economic growth. Therefore, the selection of existing emission reduction path needs highly prudent design and implementation.

Key words: Urbanization, Industrial structure, Energy consumption, Economic growth, Carbon emissions, Panel vector autoregression (PVAR)

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