中国电力行业碳排放达峰及减排潜力分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.075

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

推动电力行业低碳发展是中国有效控制CO₂排放和推动尽早达峰的重要抓手。在分别利用学习曲线工具和自下而上技术核算方式分析风电、光伏两类主要的可再生电力和其他各类电源发展趋势的基础上,综合评估了既有政策和强化政策条件下2035年前中国电力行业能源活动碳排放变化趋势。研究发现,既有政策情景下电力行业碳排放在2030年左右达到峰值,届时非化石能源在发电量中比重为44%,而通过强化推动能源绿色低碳发展的相关政策,2025年前即可达到电力行业碳排放峰值,2030年非化石电力在发电量中比重可以提升至51%,其中可再生电力加速发展将分别贡献2025、2030和2035年当年减排量（相对于既有政策情景）的45%、54%和62%。尽管从保障电力稳定安全供应角度,煤电装机仍有一定增长空间,但考虑到电力行业绿色低碳和可持续发展的长期需求,仍应加强对煤电装机的有效控制,“十四五”期间努力将煤电装机控制在11亿kW左右的水平。

关键词: 电力行业, 学习曲线, 碳排放峰值, 碳减排

Abstract:

The power sector is a major carbon emissions source from fossil fuel combustion, and it plays an important role in controlling China’s emissions and achieving emissions peak target. In this paper, learning curve tool is used to evaluate the development of wind power and solar PV power as the two most promising renewable sources, while bottom up calculating method is used to analyze other technologies’ developments under current policy scenario and enhanced policy scenario. The carbon emissions under two policy scenarios are calculated before 2035, and it is found that carbon emissions peak around 2030 with non-fossil fuels accounting for 44% in total power generation under current policy scenario, while they peak before 2025 with non-fossil fuels taking a higher share of 51% at 2030 under enhanced polices. The developments of renewables are major drivers lowering the emissions from power sector, contributing 45%, 54% and 62% of the total emission reductions at 2025, 2030 and 2035 respectively. On the other hand, though the coal power capacity still sees room to grow from the perspective of safeguarding the power supply, it is still necessary to enhance the control on coal power capacity and make best efforts to keep it under 1100 GW.

Key words: Power sector, Learning curve tool, Peaking carbon emission, Carbon mitigation

陈怡, 田川, 曹颖, 刘强, 郑晓奇. 中国电力行业碳排放达峰及减排潜力分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(5): 632-640.

CHEN Yi, TIAN Chuan, CAO Ying, LIU Qiang, ZHENG Xiao-Qi. Research on peaking carbon emissions of power sector in China and the emissions mitigation analysis[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(5): 632-640.

图/表 9

表1 既有政策和强化政策情景下电力行业考虑的主要政策

Table 1 Major power sector policies considered in two scenarios

图1 电力行业碳排放量分析模型框架

Fig. 1 Framework of the analysis model of power sector

表2 影响可再生电力占比上限的激励因子FA,pt的相关政策及权重

Table 2 Policies affecting the stimulation factor (FA,pt) determining the saturation level of wind and solar PV

表3 影响风电、光伏增长速度的激励因子FD,pt的相关政策及权重

Table 3 Policies affecting the stimulation factor (FD,pt) determining the take-up speed of wind and solar PV

图2 两个情景下风电、光伏在总发电量中的占比

Fig. 2 The share of wind and solar PV in power generation under two scenarios

图3 两个情景下发电结构的变化趋势注：由于地热发电量小,在既有政策情景和强化政策情景下占总发电量比重都非常小,基本上可以忽略不计。因此,为方便阅读,图中并未显示地热发电。

Fig. 3 Power generation by fuel source under two scenarios

图4 两个情景下煤电发电量和装机的变化趋势

Fig. 4 Coal power generation and coal power capacity under two scenarios

图5 两个情景下电力行业碳排放和度电排放的变化趋势

Fig. 5 Carbon emissions and carbon intensity of electricity under two scenarios

图6 可再生电力对于减排潜力的贡献

Fig. 6 The contribution of renewable power development to emissions mitigation under two scenarios

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