共享社会经济路径（SSPs）的应用与展望

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.078

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (2): 215-222.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.078

共享社会经济路径（SSPs）的应用与展望

翁宇威^1,^2,³,蔡闻佳^1,^2,³(),王灿⁴

¹ 清华大学地球系统科学系地球系统数值模拟教育部重点实验室,北京 100084
² 清华大学中国新型城镇化研究院健康城市研究中心,北京 100084
³ 清华-力拓资源能源与可持续发展研究中心,北京 100084
⁴ 清华大学环境学院,北京 100084

收稿日期:2019-04-12 修回日期:2019-06-09 出版日期:2020-03-30 发布日期:2020-04-01
通讯作者: 蔡闻佳 E-mail:wcai@tsinghua.edu.cn
作者简介:翁宇威,女,博士研究生
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划“全球变化及应对”专项项目(2017YFA0603602);清华?力拓资源能源与可持续发展研究中心基金;Delos Living LCC和唐仲英基金

The application and future directions of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

WENG Yu-Wei^1,^2,³,CAI Wen-Jia^1,^2,³(),WANG Can⁴

¹ Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
² Center for Healthy Cities, Institute for China Sustainable Urbanization, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
³ Tsinghua-Rio Tinto Joint Research Center for Resources Energy and Sustainable Development, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
⁴ School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

Received:2019-04-12 Revised:2019-06-09 Online:2020-03-30 Published:2020-04-01
Contact: Wen-Jia CAI E-mail:wcai@tsinghua.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

共享社会经济路径(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs)是新一代气候变化情景的重要组成部分。SSPs从提出至今已有10年的发展,对于推动气候变化预估与影响研究、支撑气候政策决策的作用逐渐凸显。文中基于179篇主题检索文献分析了SSPs发展和应用的进展,以及在当前气候变化研究中的应用特点。研究发现,次国家和部门层面的SSPs故事线拓展开始兴起,水资源、土地和健康是影响评估领域的关注焦点,方法学上强调模型间耦合与多模型比较。当前SSPs在中国的发展与应用集中于基本要素的预估及气候影响评估,路径对各省间及城乡间社会经济发展差异的刻画有待加强。基于情景发展和应用的现状,最后从加强与气候建模团队的合作、支持影响与脆弱性研究、拓展全球情景、加强模型间比较、提高决策支持力5个方面讨论了SSPs的未来研究展望。

关键词: 气候变化, 共享社会经济路径(SSPs), 情景应用, 文献计量

Abstract:

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are an essential part of the new generation of climate scenarios. SSPs have been developing for ten years since their first appearance and playing an increasingly significant role in the field of climate change, both for climate projections and impact analyses. Through the bibliometric analysis of 179 publications, the current application features of SSPs are summarized, as well as the development and application status in China. We find that scenario extensions at sub-national or sectoral scales are emerging; water, land use, and health are the focuses of impact analysis; inter-model coupling and multi-model comparison are increasingly used methodologies. Currently, the development and application of SSPs in China are mainly about estimating basic scenario factors and assessing climate impacts, but the ability of scenarios to capture socioeconomic heterogeneity between different provinces and urban/rural areas needs to be improved. Finally, the future research directions of SSPs are discussed in terms of collaboration with the climate modeling teams, impact and vulnerability analysis, scenario extensions, multi-model comparison, and decision support.

Key words: Climate change, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), Scenario application, Bibliometrics

翁宇威,蔡闻佳,王灿. 共享社会经济路径（SSPs）的应用与展望[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(2): 215-222.

WENG Yu-Wei,CAI Wen-Jia,WANG Can. The application and future directions of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(2): 215-222.

图/表 4

图1 SSPs文章的发表数量与被引用次数（2012—2018年）

Fig. 1 Annual publications and annual citations of the SSPs literature

表1 文章数量排名前十的期刊、作者与机构

Tab.1 The most productive (top ten) journals, authors, and institutions

图2 SSPs开发与应用的研究路线

Fig. 2 Research route for development and application of SSPs

表2 SSPs文献的分类整理

Tab.2 Classification of the SSPs literature

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共享社会经济路径（SSPs）的应用与展望

The application and future directions of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

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