基于哥本哈根学派的中国气候安全化比较分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.161

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (6): 693-699.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.161

基于哥本哈根学派的中国气候安全化比较分析

马欣¹,王文涛^2,³(),张雪艳³,吴绍洪³,刘燕华⁴

1 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京 100081
2 中国21世纪议程管理中心,北京 100038
3 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
4 国务院参事室,北京 100006

收稿日期:2018-11-14 修回日期:2019-02-11 出版日期:2019-11-30 发布日期:2019-11-30
通讯作者: 王文涛 E-mail:wangwt@acca21.org.cn
作者简介:马欣,男,副研究员,maxin02@caas.cn
基金资助:
科技部改革发展专项“巴黎会议后应对气候变化重大问题研究”;中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目“气候变化不利影响的安全性分析及其区域格局”(2014034);“面向未来20年风险的中国适应气候变化技术路线图研究”(2014108)

Analysis on China’s climate securitization based on Copenhagen School

Xin MA¹,Wen-Tao WANG^2,³(),Xue-Yan ZHANG³,Shao-Hong WU³,Yan-Hua LIU⁴

1 Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
2 The Administrative Centre for China’s Agenda 21, Beijing 100038, China;
3 Institute of Geography Science and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
4 Counselors’ Office of the State Council, Beijing 100006, China;

Received:2018-11-14 Revised:2019-02-11 Online:2019-11-30 Published:2019-11-30
Contact: Wen-Tao WANG E-mail:wangwt@acca21.org.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用哥本哈根学派提出的安全化方法,对中美气候安全化水平进行对比,结果表明：安全是一种主体间现象,通过中美气候安全化水平的对比,可以清楚地识别出中国处于由政治权威、科学权威作为安全化主体的高强度“安全化”过程中,而美国正处于由政治权威引导的“反安全化”过程。“主体间性”是安全化主体之间对存在性威胁的认同程度,中国气候安全化的主体间性与气候安全化进程不协调,表现为中国政治高层的气候安全化水平较高,而公众的安全化水平相对较低。气候安全存在性威胁表达是制约中国公众气候安全化水平的重要因素,表现为安全化视角和媒介单一。建议通过引入全球视角和图形化等方式增强存在性威胁表达效果,以提升中国气候安全化水平。

关键词: 气候安全化, 哥本哈根学派, 比较分析, 中国

Abstract:

Climate change, as a typical “non-traditional security” issue, whose position in national security affairs has been debated for a long time. Securitization theory is an important method to analyze the non-traditional national security. The securitization factor method proposed by the Copenhagen School is used to compare the Sino-U.S. climate securitization level in this paper. The results are as follows. Security is an inter-subject phenomenon. China is in the process of “securitization” with political and scientific authority as main body, and the U.S. is in “non-securitization” process caused by political authority. Inter-subjectivity is identification degree of main body to “existential threat”. It is inharmonious between inter-subjective and progress of climate securitization in China. The top political leader has a higher level of climate securitization than the public. The means of expression of climate existential threat is a restrictive factor to public climate securitization level, which includes single perspective and media of securitization. The modes of global perspective and inter-state graphical comparison are induced to enhance the expression effect of existential threat, which can propose method to promote climate securitization level of China.

Key words: Climate securitization, Copenhagen School, Comparative analysis, China

马欣,王文涛,张雪艳,吴绍洪,刘燕华. 基于哥本哈根学派的中国气候安全化比较分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(6): 693-699.

Xin MA,Wen-Tao WANG,Xue-Yan ZHANG,Shao-Hong WU,Yan-Hua LIU. Analysis on China’s climate securitization based on Copenhagen School[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(6): 693-699.

图/表 5

表1 中美气候安全化要素对比

Table 1 Comparison of Sino-U.S. climate securitization

图1 全球2℃温控目标下2100年海平面上升影响人口[16]

Fig. 1 Population affected by sea level rise in 2100 under global 2℃ target (NA refers to landlocked countries)[16]

图2 2050年代全球气候变化粮食风险指数[18]

Fig. 2 Global climate food security index in the 2050s[18]

图3 2040年代气候变化下全球水分胁迫状况[19]

Fig. 3 Global water stress condition under climate change in the 2040s [19]

图4 中美气候变化威胁表达比较

Fig. 4 Comprehensive understanding on climate securitization after comparison between China and the U.S.

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基于哥本哈根学派的中国气候安全化比较分析

Analysis on China’s climate securitization based on Copenhagen School

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