NUIST地球系统模式模拟热带气旋活动的气候特征分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.116

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用恒定的现代外部强迫驱动第一版NUIST地球系统模式,进行了40年全球热带气旋活动模拟,分析了热带气旋活动的气候特征,并与1977—2016年观测资料对比分析。结果表明：该模式能够模拟出与热带气旋类似的结构特征,在热带气旋活动活跃的海区,模拟热带气旋生成的空间分布和影响范围与观测基本一致,但是各个海区热带气旋的生成频数与观测还存在差异。除了北印度洋海区,各个海区热带气旋生成频数的季节变化与观测相似。模式在西北太平洋海区模拟结果最好,能模拟出热带气旋的生成范围和盛行路径;在北印度洋地区模拟结果较差,北印度洋海区的相对涡度模拟与观测存在较大差异,这是模式未能模拟出北印度洋热带气旋双峰特征的主要原因。

关键词: 热带气旋, 活动特征, NUIST地球系统模式（NESM), 大尺度环境场

Abstract:

By using the NUIST Earth system model v1 (NESM v1) with a constant external forcing, 40-year global tropical cyclone activities were simulated, and the simulation data were compared with the observations (1977-2016). The results show that NESM v1 can simulate vortex structure similar to tropical cyclones in the area where tropical cyclones are active, The spatial distribution and impact range of simulated tropical cyclones are basically consistent with the observations, but the numbers of tropical cyclones in various areas are different from the observations. In addition to North Indian Ocean, the numbers of tropical cyclones in different seasons are similar to the observations. The model has the best simulation in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, it can simulate the formation area and prevailing path of tropical cyclones. The simulation results in the North Indian Ocean are poor. NESM model simulates relative vorticity different from observation, so it cannot simulate the bimodal characteristic in North Indian.

Key words: Tropical cyclone, Activity characteristic, NUIST Earth system model (NESM), Large-scale environmental field

吴启蒙,吴立广,曹剑. NUIST地球系统模式模拟热带气旋活动的气候特征分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(2): 107-118.

Qi-Meng WU,Li-Guang WU,Jian CAO. Analysis of climate characteristics of tropical cyclone activities simulated by the NUIST Earth system model[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(2): 107-118.

图/表 13

图1 模拟的热带气旋结构特征(a) 850 hPa风场和海平面气压场,(b)沿热带气旋中心横截面的温度距平和经向风结构

Fig. 1 Simulated tropical cyclone (TC) structure (a) 850 hPa wind field and sea level pressure, (b) temperature anomaly and meridional winds

图2 气候平均的海表面温度场(a)模拟,(b)观测,(c)偏差

Fig. 2 Climatic mean sea surface temperature (a) simulation, (b) observation, (c) bias

图3 气候平均的850 hPa风场(a)模拟,(b)观测,(c)偏差

Fig. 3 Climate average 850 hPa wind field (a) simulation, (b) observation, (c) bias

图4 气候平均的850 hPa相对涡度(a)模拟,(b)观测,(c)偏差

Fig. 4 Climate average 850 hPa relative vorticity (a) simulation, (b) observation, (c) bias

图5 气候平均的200 hPa风场(a)模拟,(b)观测,(c)偏差

Fig. 5 Climate average 200 hPa wind field (a) simulation, (b) observation, (c) bias

图6 气候平均的垂直切变(a)模拟,(b)观测,(c)偏差

Fig. 6 Climate average vertical shear (a) simulation, (b) observation, (c) bias

图7 热带气旋路径分布与各海域热带气旋的年平均个数(a)模拟,(b)观测

Fig. 7 Global distribution of TC tracks and the annual TC numbers in each ocean (a) simulation, (b) observation

表1 全球各个海区年平均热带气旋数量统计（观测：1977—2016年,模拟：40年）

Table 1 Annual mean TC numbers in each basin (observation: 1977-2016, simulation: 40 years )

项目	全球	NIO	WNP	ENP	NAT	SIO	SPO
观测/(个/年)	80.6	3.7	24.8	16.5	12.8	14.6	9.5
模拟/(个/年)	76.2	10.6	23.3	8.4	5.1	13.1	13.9
绝对误差/%	-4.4	6.9	-1.5	-8.1	-7.7	-1.5	4.4
相对误差/%	-5.5	186.0	-6.1	-49.1	-60.2	-10.3	46.3

图8 热带气旋生成位置分布与各海域热带气旋的年平均个数(a)模拟,(b)观测,(c)偏差

Fig. 8 Global distribution of TC genesis and the annual TC numbers in each ocean (a) simulation, (b) observation, (c) bias

图9 各大海域热带气旋各月生成频数

Fig. 9 The monthly frequencies of TC genesis in (a) NIO, (b)WNP, (c) ENP, (d) NAT, (e) SIO, (f) SPO

图10 西北太平洋热带气旋的模拟生成位置(a)与路径分布(c),观测生成位置(b)与路径分布(d)

Fig. 10 Simulation genesis (a) and track (c) of the TC in the western North Pacific, observation genesis (b) and track (d)

图11 850 hPa、500 hPa和200 hPa模拟(a, c, e)与观测(b, d, f) 7—9月平均风场

Fig. 11 850 hPa, 500 hPa, and 200 hPa simulation (a, c, e) and observation (b, d, f) average wind field from July to September

图12 北印度洋模拟和观测海温(a)、垂直切变(b)和850 hPa相对涡度(c)的季节变化

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