中国1961—2016年夏季持续和非持续性极端降水的变化特征

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.016

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于国家气象信息中心提供的1961—2016年2400多站逐日降水观测资料,根据百分位法确定极端降水,对中国夏季持续（持续2 d及以上）和非持续性（持续1 d）极端降水事件的变化特征进行了研究。结果表明：在气候变暖背景下,以江淮流域为代表,中国大部分地区极端降水量趋于增多,但华北、西南及西部部分地区趋于减少;除内蒙古中部、四川等地以外,中国大部极端降水对总降水的贡献呈增多趋势。进一步对华北、江淮、华南、西南4个代表区域进行分析,发现华北、西南地区的持续和非持续性极端降水量都呈减少趋势,持续性极端降水量的减少更突出,极端降水更多以非持续性形式出现;江淮、华南一带,两类极端降水量都呈增多趋势,持续性极端降水量的增加更明显,极端降水更多以持续性形式出现。

关键词: 中国, 持续性极端降水, 非持续性极端降水, 趋势, 极端降水持续性结构

Abstract:

In this study, based on daily gauge precipitation data of 2480 stations from 1961 to 2016, the summer extreme precipitation event was defined using the 95th percentile, and the changes in persistent (last for at least 2 d) and non-persistent (1 d) extreme event in China were analyzed. The results indicate that under global warming, the contribution of extreme precipitation to total precipitation increased in most of China, but it decreased in the central part of Inner Mongolia and the Sichuan Basin. In North China and Southwest China, both persistent and non-persistent extreme precipitation totals decreased; the decreasing trend of persistent extreme precipitation was more significant; extreme precipitation event occurred as non-persistent event. Meanwhile, in the Yangtze River Basin and South China, both extreme precipitation totals increased; especially persistent extreme precipitation increased obviously; extreme precipitation events occurred more as persistent ones.

Key words: China, Persistent extreme precipitation, Non-persistent extreme precipitation, Trend, Persistence structure

贺冰蕊,翟盘茂. 中国1961—2016年夏季持续和非持续性极端降水的变化特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(5): 437-444.

Bing-Rui HE,Pan-Mao ZHAI. Characteristics of the persistent and non-persistent extreme precipitation in China from 1961 to 2016[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(5): 437-444.

图/表 6

图1 1961—2016年夏季(a)降水量和(b)极端降水量线性趋势空间分布以及(c)极端降水量对夏季降水量的贡献率及其(d)线性趋势空间分布

Fig. 1 Spatial distribution of linear trend of (a) summer total precipitation, (b) extreme precipitation, (c) the contribution of extreme precipitation to summer total precipitation and (d) its linear trend in 1961-2016

图2 1961—2016年线性趋势的空间分布(a)非持续性,(b)持续性极端降水量变化趋势,以及(c)持续性与非持续性极端降水量之比

Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of linear trend of (a) non-persistent extreme precipitation, (b) persistent extreme precipitation, (c) the ratio of persistent extreme precipitation to non-persistent extreme precipitation in 1961-2016

图3 1961—2016年夏季极端降水、持续性、非持续性极端降水量距平时间序列（相对于1961—1990年30年平均）

Fig. 3 Time series of summer extreme precipitation, persistent and non-persistent extreme precipitation anomalies (relative to the 30-year average from 1961 to 1990)

图4 1961—2016年持续和非持续性极端降水量对极端降水量的贡献率（柱状）及持续与非持续性极端降水量之比（曲线）的时间序列

Fig. 4 Time-series of contributions of persistent and non-persistent extreme precipitation to extreme heavy rainfall and the ratio of persistent and non-persistent extreme precipitation in (a) North China, (b) South China, (c) Jianghuai region, (d) Southwest China

Table 1 Linear trend of extreme precipitation and two extreme precipitation events, contribution of persistent and non-persistent extreme precipitation and its linear trend, the ratio of persistent and non-persistent extreme precipitation and its linear trend

图5 1961—2016年夏季降水变化概念模型

Fig. 5 Conceptual model of precipitation change in (a) the Yangtze River Basin and South China, (b) North China and Southwest China

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