气候变化研究进展 ›› 2018, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (3): 237-246.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.089

• 气候系统变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

全球1.5℃和2.0℃升温下潮白河流域气候和径流量变化预估

郝莹1,2,3,马京津4,安晶晶3,王元1,许红梅5()   

  1. 1 南京大学大气科学学院,南京 210023
    2 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081
    3 安徽省气象台,合肥 230031
    4 北京市气象灾害防御中心,北京 100089
    5 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2017-05-09 修回日期:2017-08-28 出版日期:2018-05-31 发布日期:2018-06-07
  • 作者简介:郝莹,女,高级工程师,DG1328006@smail.nju.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(2015LASW-B02);淮河流域气象开放研究基金(HRM201501);国家自然科学基金(41105080);国家重点研发计划(2016YFE0102400);中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2015Z12)

Projected changes in climate and river discharge in the Chaobai River Basin under 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming

Ying HAO1,2,3,Jing-Jin MA4,Jing-Jing AN3,Yuan WANG1,Hong-Mei XU5()   

  1. 1 School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    2 State Key Laboratory on Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
    3 Anhui Meteorological Observatory, Hefei 230031, China
    4 Beijing Meteorological Disaster Prevention Center, Beijing 100089, China
    5 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2017-05-09 Revised:2017-08-28 Online:2018-05-31 Published:2018-06-07

摘要:

潮白河流域为北京主要供水源,其水资源量对北京用水保障至关重要,因此开展该流域在全球1.5℃和2.0℃升温下的径流预估研究具有现实意义。利用1961—2001年WATCH数据对SWAT水文模型进行率定和验证,在此基础上,应用第五次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)中5个全球气候模式在典型浓度路径(RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5)下预估的全球1.5℃和2.0℃升温下的数据驱动SWAT模型,开展了潮白河流域气温、降水及径流量的变化预估研究,并量化评估由气候模式和RCPs导致的水文效应的不确定性。结果表明:(1) SWAT模型基本能较好地模拟潮白河流域的月径流特征,应用该模型进行气候变化对径流量的影响评估是可行的。(2)在全球1.5℃和2.0℃升温下,潮白河流域年平均温度较基准期(1976—2005年)分别增加1.5℃和2.2℃,年平均降水量也增加4.9%和7.0%。预估的年径流量在全球1.5℃升温下总体略有增加,盛夏和秋初的径流量占全年的比例也有所增加;在全球2.0℃升温下,年径流量增幅达30%以上,但夏季径流量占全年的比例明显减少。(3)在全球2.0℃升温下,潮白河流域极端丰水流量明显增加,洪涝发生风险增大。(4)未来气温、降水量和径流量的预估都存在一定的不确定性,在全球2.0℃升温下不确定性更大;相对而言,径流量的不确定性要远大于降水量的不确定性;无论是全球1.5℃升温下还是2.0℃升温下,预估不确定性主要来源于全球气候模式。

关键词: 潮白河流域, SWAT水文模型, 全球气候模式(GCMs), 典型浓度路径(RCPs), 径流, 预估

Abstract:

The Chaobai River Basin, which provides majority freshwater for Beijing City, is an important guarantee to water safety in Beijing. So it is of vital importance to assess the future change in discharge in the Chaobai River Basin under 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming. In this study, the hydrological responses to climate forcing under 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming in the Chaobai River Basin were studied using hydrological model SWAT driven by five general circulation models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The uncertainties of projected impacts from GCMs structure and RCPs scenarios were estimated and compared quantitatively further. The results indicated that: (1) The simulation results of SWAT model have good agreement with discharge observations in both calibration and validation period, it is feasible to apply the SWAT model to estimate the impacts of climate change. (2) The mean annual temperature and precipitation of the Chaobai River Basin will increase under 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming. The mean annual discharge will increase slightly under 1.5℃ global warming and be more concentrated in summer and early autumn. When under 2.0℃ global warming, the mean annual runoff will rise by more than 30%. However projected mean proportion of monthly to annual discharge will decrease in the peak season (July and August) of water usage, which will have impact on water resource management and control. (3) Extreme monthly and annual discharge will increase dramatically under global warming, especially in 2.0℃warming. As a result, the risk of flooding will grow and lead to more pressure on flood mitigation. (4) It is proved that there are more uncertainties in above results under 2.0℃ global warming than under 1.5℃ global warming. Uncertainties in projections of discharge are greater compared with those in precipitation projections. Under both 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming, uncertainties in the projections of all indicators from GCMs structure are larger than those from RCPs scenarios.

Key words: The Chaobai River Basin, SWAT, GCMs, RCPs, Discharge, Projection

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