用动力模式做热带气旋的季节内到百年预测与预估的评估

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.216

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2018, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (1): 106-110.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.216

• 简讯 • 上一篇

用动力模式做热带气旋的季节内到百年预测与预估的评估

赵宗慈^1,², 罗勇^1,³, 黄建斌^1,⁴

1 清华大学地球系统科学系,北京 100084
2 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081
3 全球变化与中国绿色发展协同创新中心,北京100875
4 瑞典哥德堡大学地球科学系,瑞典 40530 1 季节内时间尺度

出版日期:2018-01-31 发布日期:2018-01-30
作者简介:
作者简介：王志成,男,高级工程师,wangzc1963@126.com
基金资助:
科技部重点专项（2017YFA0603700);清华大学创新科学研究项目（20131089357）

Assessment on predictions and projections of tropical cyclones from intraseasonal to centennial time scales using the dynamic models

Online:2018-01-31 Published:2018-01-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

赵宗慈, 罗勇, 黄建斌. 用动力模式做热带气旋的季节内到百年预测与预估的评估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(1): 106-110.

图/表 4

表1 近10年热带气旋季节内预测较好的模式

Table 1 Better intraseasonal prediction models for tropical cyclones over the last 10 years

表2 近10年热带气旋季节到年预测较好的模式

Table 2 Better seasonal to annual prediction models for tropical cyclones over the last 10 years

表3 近10年热带气旋年代际预测较好的模式

Table 3 Better decadal prediction models for tropical cyclones over the last 10 years

表4 近10年预估人类排放造成热带气旋变化的模式

Table 4 Better projection models for tropical cyclones caused by human activities over the last 10 years

参考文献

[1]	IPCC. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013
[2]	Hsiang S M, Camargo S J. Tropical cyclones: from the influence of climate to their socioeconomic impacts[J]. Extreme Events: Observations, Modeling, and Economics, Geophysical Monograph 214
[3]	Gall J S, Ginis I, Lin S J, et al. Experimental tropical cyclone prediction using the GFDL 25-km-resolution global atmospheric model[J]. Weather and Forecast, 2011, 26(6), 1008-1019
[4]	Liu P, Satoh M, Wang B, et al. An MJO simulated by the NICAM at 14- and 7-km resolutions[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2009, 137: 3254-3268
[5]	Vitart F, Leroy A, Wheeler M C. A comparison of dynamical and statistical predictions of weekly tropicalcyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2010, 138, 3671-3682
[6]	Camargo S J, Barnston A G.Experimental seasonal dynamical forecasts of tropical cyclone activity at IRI[J]. Weather Forecast, 2009, 24(2): 472-491
[7]	LaRow T E, Lim Y K, Shin D W, et al. Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane simulations[J]. Journal of Climate, 2008, 21(13), 3191-3206
[8]	Vitart F.Impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation ontropical storms and risk of landfall in the ECMWF forecast system[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2009, 36(15), L15802
[9]	Anderson D, Stockdale T, Balmaseda M, et al. Development of the ECMWF seasonal forecast system 3 [R]. ECMWF Technical Memorandum, 2007, 503: 56
[10]	Strachan J, Vidale P L, Hodges K, et al. Investigating global tropical cyclone activity with a hierarchy of AGCMs: the role of model resolution[J]. Journal of Climate, 2013, 26(1): 133-152
[11]	Vecchi G A, Zhao M, Wang H, et al. Statistical-dynamical predictions of seasonal North Atlantic hurricane activity[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2011, 139(4): 1070-1082
[12]	Villarini G, Vecchi G A.Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2012, 2(8): 604-607
[13]	Smith D M, Eade R, Dunstone N J, et al. Skillful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2010, 3(12): 846-849
[14]	Oouchi K,. Noda A T, Satoh M, et al. A simulated preconditioning of typhoon genesis controlled by a boreal summer Madden-Julian Oscillation event in a global cloud-system-resolving model[J]. Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere Sola, 2009, 5(1): 65-68
[15]	Bender M A,. Knutson T R, Tuleya R E, et al. Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes[J]. Science, 2010, 327(5964): 454-458
[16]	Lavender S L, Walsh K J E. Dynamically downscaled simulations of Australian region tropical cyclones incurrent and future climates[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2011, 38, L10705
[17]	Fu X H, Hsu P C.Extended-range ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclogenesis in the northern Indian Ocean: modulation of Madden-Julian Oscillation[J]. Geophysical Research Letter, 2011, 38(15): 532-560
[18]	Zhao M, Held I M, Lin S J, et al. Simulations of global hurricane climatology, interannual variability, and response to global warming using a 50 km resolution GCM[J]. Journal of Climate, 2009, 22(24): 6653-6678
[19]	Ho C H, Baik J J, Kim J H, et al. Interdecadal changes in summertime typhoon tracks[J]. Journal of Climate, 2004, 17: 1767-1776

用动力模式做热带气旋的季节内到百年预测与预估的评估

Assessment on predictions and projections of tropical cyclones from intraseasonal to centennial time scales using the dynamic models

RichHTML

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 4

参考文献

相关文章 0

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价