全球碳排放空间约束条件下美国退出《巴黎协定》对中欧日碳排放空间和减排成本的影响

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.134

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2017, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (5): 428-438.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.134

• 美国退出《巴黎协定》对国际气候治理的影响专栏 • 上一篇下一篇

全球碳排放空间约束条件下美国退出《巴黎协定》对中欧日碳排放空间和减排成本的影响

戴瀚程¹, 张海滨², 王文涛³

1 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871;
2 北京大学国际关系学院, 北京 100871;
3 科技部21世纪议程管理中心北京 100038

收稿日期:2017-06-27 修回日期:2017-08-19 出版日期:2017-09-30 发布日期:2017-09-30
通讯作者: 张海滨 E-mail:zhanghb@pku.edu.cn
作者简介:戴瀚程,男,助理教授
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金委员会管理科学部2017年应急管理项目“美国退出《巴黎协定》对全球气候治理的影响及我国的应对策略”

The Impacts of U.S. Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the Carbon Emission Space and Mitigation Cost of China, EU and Japan Under Constraints of Global Carbon Emission Space

Dai Hancheng¹, Zhang Haibin², Wang Wentao³

1 College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
2 School of International Studies, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
3 The Administrative Center for China's Agenda 21, Ministry of Science and Technology, Beijing 100038, China

Received:2017-06-27 Revised:2017-08-19 Online:2017-09-30 Published:2017-09-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

应用全球多部门、多区域动态可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型，采用情景分析方法，评估美国退出《巴黎协定》后，由于其碳排放路径的变化对国际气候谈判中的3个重要谈判方中国、欧盟和日本实现国家自主贡献（NDC）和2℃目标情景下碳排放空间和减排成本的影响。结果表明：在全球碳排放固定且分配方式固定的条件下，美国不同程度的退约将为自身获得较大的碳排放空间，同时挤压其他地区，包括中国、欧盟和日本实现NDC和2℃目标的碳排放空间，将推高中国、欧盟和日本实现NDC和2℃目标的碳价。2030年，2℃目标下中国碳价的升幅将达4.4~14.6美元/t，欧盟为9.7~35.4美元/t，日本为16.0~53.5美元/t。同时将增加中国、欧盟和日本等其他国家和地区的GDP损失。2030年，2℃目标下中国GDP损失的升幅将达220.0亿~711.0亿美元（相当于16.4~53.1美元/人），欧盟为93.5亿~321.4亿美元（相当于20.7~71.1美元/人），日本为41.3亿~134.5亿美元（相当于34.3~111.7美元/人）。

关键词: 美国退出《巴黎协定》, 碳排放空间, 减排成本

Abstract:

Based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and scenario analysis, this article assesses the impacts of the United States' (U.S.) withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on China, European Union (EU) and Japan in terms of carbon emission space and mitigation cost under Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and 2℃ scenarios due to changed emission pathway of U.S. The results show that, under the condition of constant global cumulative carbon emissions and fixed burden sharing scheme among countries, the failure of the U.S. to honor its NDC commitment to different degrees will increase its carbon emission space and decrease its mitigation cost. However, the carbon emission space of other parties, including China, EU and Japan, will be reduced and their mitigation costs will be raised. In 2030, under the 2℃ target, the carbon price will increase by 4.4-14.6 US$/t in China, by 9.7-35.4 US$/t in EU, and by 16.0-53.5 US$/t in Japan. In addition, China, EU and Japan will incur additional GDP loss. Under the 2℃ target in 2030, the GDP loss of China would increase by US$ 22.0 billion-71.1 billion (equivalent to 16.4-53.1 US$ per capita), EU's GDP loss would rise by US$ 9.4 billion-32.1 billion (equivalent to 20.7-71.1 US$ per capita), and Japan's GDP loss will rise by US$ 4.1 billion-13.5 billion (equivalent to 34.3-111.6 US$ per capita).

Key words: U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, carbon emission space, mitigation cost

戴瀚程, 张海滨, 王文涛. 全球碳排放空间约束条件下美国退出《巴黎协定》对中欧日碳排放空间和减排成本的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2017, 13(5): 428-438.

Dai Hancheng, Zhang Haibin, Wang Wentao. The Impacts of U.S. Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the Carbon Emission Space and Mitigation Cost of China, EU and Japan Under Constraints of Global Carbon Emission Space[J]. Climate Change Research, 2017, 13(5): 428-438.

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全球碳排放空间约束条件下美国退出《巴黎协定》对中欧日碳排放空间和减排成本的影响

The Impacts of U.S. Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the Carbon Emission Space and Mitigation Cost of China, EU and Japan Under Constraints of Global Carbon Emission Space

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