气候变化研究进展 ›› 2016, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (3): 172-178.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.180

• 温室气体排放及其控制专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于大气污染控制的中国煤炭消费总量控制方案初步研究

罗宏,张保留,吕连宏,裴莹莹   

  1. 中国环境科学研究院,北京 100012
  • 收稿日期:2015-10-27 修回日期:2016-02-01 出版日期:2016-05-31 发布日期:2016-05-30
  • 通讯作者: 张保留 E-mail:zblsmile@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    美国能源基金会中国可持续能源项目,国家环保公益性行业科研专项

Preliminary Study of China’s Total Coal Consumption Control Scheme Based on Air Pollution Control

Luo Hong, Zhang Baoliu, Lu Lianhong, Pei Yingying   

  1. Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
  • Received:2015-10-27 Revised:2016-02-01 Online:2016-05-31 Published:2016-05-30
  • Contact: ZHANG baoliu E-mail:zblsmile@126.com

摘要:

控制煤炭消费是应对大气污染问题的关键措施,但中国煤炭消费总量控制仍未分解与落实到地方层面。研究基于大气污染的约束分析,结合情景分析与数据回归,通过建立大气污染物与煤炭消费之间的量化关系,分析了2020、2030年全国及各省/市煤炭消费总量控制目标,初步设计了中国煤炭消费总量控制方案,提出2020和2030年全国煤炭消费量控制目标分别为40亿t和45亿t,各省则均按预测结果调整执行,汇总值分别为44亿t和50亿t,鉴于两者之间的差距在于国家统计口径考虑了重复因素的剔除,故采纳基于国家统计数据的分析结果。建议构建绿色经济发展用煤指标,适当提高电力耗煤的比例,为促进中国中长期煤炭资源的合理消费提供科技支撑。

关键词: 煤炭消费, 总量控制, 大气污染, 量化分析

Abstract:

To control the coal consumption is the key measure to deal with air pollution issues, while China’s coal consumption control has not ever been decomposed to local level. With this case, based on the analysis of air pollution constraints, combined with scenario analysis and data regression, to set up the relationship between air pollutants and coal consumption, then to study the whole China’s and each provinces’ coal consumption goals in 2020 and 2030, finally to design the scheme of China’s coal consumption, which proposed the national coal consumption control target of 2020 and 2030 are respectively 4.0 billion tons and 4.5 billion tons respectively, the provinces’ is implemented according to the predictions, the summary values were 4.4 billion tons and 5.0 billion tons respectively, in view of the gap between two cases is due to the national statistical factors considered discarding duplicates, thus the results of the analysis based on national statistics will be adopted. It recommends building green economic developmental indicators of coal consumption, while appropriately increasing the proportion of coal consumption for electricity production, so as to provide technical support for China’s reasonable coal consumption of medium and long term.

Key words: coal consumption, total control, air pollution, quantitative analysis

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