关键词: 自适应控制, 升温目标, 排放空间, 分配原则

Abstract: This paper adopted the adaptive control model to simulate the climate system, and simultaneously projected the global admissible emission paths under 2℃ warming targets relative to various base-years. It further proposed three viable warming targets based on the feasibility assessment of the aforementioned targets. Finally, we analyzed the corresponding admissible emissions and emission gaps for China under various principles of allocation. It indicated that it is hard to fulfill the 2℃ warming target relative to the pre-industrial level; while the likelihood to limit the warming within the 2℃ target relative to 1850-1900 or 1861-1880 is high. Moreover, we proposed the light-, mid- and heavy-abatement targets, which are to limit the warming within 2.5℃ relative to pre-industrial level, within 1.0℃ relative to 1986-2005 and within 1.5℃ relative to 1850-1900. China will acquire about one fifth of global emissions under the sovereignty, egalitarianism and ability-to-pay principles. But with all these principles, China’s admissible emissions will shrink gradually under the three warming targets and the emission gap between demand and supply will enlarge accordingly.

Key words: adaptive control, temperature control target, emission space, allocation principle