关键词: 国际贸易, 南北集团, 贸易隐含碳排放, 投入产出, 生产转移, 产业链

Abstract: Based on input-output model and latest data from GTAP8 database (Global Trade Analysis Project), the changes of embodied carbon emissions in North group and South group countries were analyzed in 2007 relative to 2004 resulted from international trade changes and corresponding influence on global carbon emissions. The results show that with the expending scale of imports and exports from developing countries, the shares of global embodied emissions in imports and exports of developing countries were both increasing. From 2004 to 2007, the exporting structures were enhancing: the developed focused on exports of high-end equipment manufacturing and service, and the developing focused on resource products and energy intensive goods as well as low-to-medium level manufacturing. This resulted in the increase of global CO2 emissions of 415 Mt, which accounted for 63% of embodied emissions growth during this period. The share of embodied carbon emissions from developing countries?exports is expected to further increase in the future. The changes in embodied carbon emissions flows within North-South group caused by international trade changes will have an increasingly important impact on global climate change actions.

Key words: international trade, North group and South group, carbon emissions embodied in trade, input-output, production transfer, industrial chain