气候变化研究进展 ›› 2015, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (1): 31-37.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.01.005

• 气候变化与水资源专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化背景下蚌埠市暴雨与淮河上游洪水遭遇概率分析

陆桂华1,张亚洲1,肖  恒1,刘志雨2,胡健伟2,吴志勇1   

  1. 1 河海大学水问题研究所,南京 210098;
    2 水利部水利信息中心,北京 100053
  • 收稿日期:2014-06-12 修回日期:2014-09-15 出版日期:2015-01-30 发布日期:2015-01-30
  • 通讯作者: 吴志勇 E-mail:wzyhhu@gmail.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究发展计划;全国优秀博士学位论文作者专项资金资助项目;教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划

Coincidence Probability of Urban Rainstorm in Bengbu and Flood in the Upper Reaches of Huaihe River Under Climate Change

Lu Guihua1, Zhang Yazhou1, Xiao Heng1, Liu Zhiyu2, Hu Jianwei2, Wu Zhiyong1   

  1. 1 Institute of Water Problems, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 
    2 Water Resources Information Center of the Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100053, China
  • Received:2014-06-12 Revised:2014-09-15 Online:2015-01-30 Published:2015-01-30
  • Contact: Zhi-yong WU E-mail:wzyhhu@gmail.com

摘要: 利用6个全球/区域气候模式和VIC模型,预估了IPCC RCPs情景下2021—2050年淮河干流蚌埠水文站(吴家渡断面)的日流量过程。在此基础上,运用Copula函数构建了蚌埠市暴雨与淮河上游洪水遭遇概率模型,分析了RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下不同重现期暴雨和洪水组合遭遇概率的变化趋势。结果表明,2021—2050年多模式预估上游洪水与城市暴雨遭遇的概率较基准期(1971—2000年)有所增大,具有较高的一致性,平均增幅46%~79%。暴雨与洪水遭遇概率的增大,将会增加未来蚌埠市防洪工作的难度。

关键词: 气候变化, VIC模型, Copula函数, 暴雨, 洪水, 遭遇概率, 预估

Abstract: Based on five global climate models, one regional climate model and the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) model, daily discharge from Bengbu station was estimated under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for 2021-2050. A probability model based on Copula function was established to analyze future coincidence probability changes of urban rainstorm in Bengbu and flood in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Relative to the baseline period (1971-2000), the coincidence probabilities of different combinations of rainfall and flood estimated by multi-model ensembles will increase with a range of 46%-79% in the future (2021-2050), which is likely to increase the pressure on urban flood control in Bengbu.

Key words: climate change, VIC model, Copula function, rainstorm, flood, coincidence probability, projection

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