气候变化研究进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 10 ›› Issue (5): 365-369.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2014.05.008

• 气候系统变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于CMIP5模式的中国地区未来高温灾害风险预估

董思言1,2,徐  影1,周波涛1,3,侯美亭4,李柔珂1,於  王利1,张永香1   

  1. 1 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081; 
    2 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081; 
    3 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京 210044; 
    4 中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2014-02-20 修回日期:2014-05-07 出版日期:2014-09-30 发布日期:2014-09-30
  • 通讯作者: 董思言 E-mail:dongsy@cma.gov.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究计划;公益性行业(气象)科研专项;国家自然科学基金项目;国家自然科学基金项目;中国气象局气候变化专项;中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目

Projected Risk of Extreme Heat in China Based on CMIP5 Models

Dong Siyan1, 2, Xu Ying1, Zhou Botao1, 3, Hou Meiting4, Li Rouke1, Yu Li1, Zhang Yongxiang1   

  1. 1 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 
    2 Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 
    3 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 
    4 China
    Meteorological Administration Training Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2014-02-20 Revised:2014-05-07 Online:2014-09-30 Published:2014-09-30

摘要: 本文利用CMIP5中22个全球气候模式模拟结果和相关社会经济数据,对RCP8.5情景下中国未来近期(2016—2035年)、中期(2046—2065年)、远期(2080—2099年)3个时段高温灾害风险的变化趋势进行了定量预估。结果表明:中国未来不同时期高温致灾危险度可能逐步增加;未来不同时期高温风险也趋于升高。III级及以上的高温灾害风险等级范围将增大,特别是东北三省、内蒙古、陕西、宁夏、贵州、福建等省(区)处于高风险等级的面积明显增大,山东、河北、河南、安徽在近期将出现V级高温灾害风险,中期和远期V级高温灾害风险将扩展到江苏、湖南、湖北、江西、四川、广西和广东等省(区)。

关键词: RCP8.5情景, 高温灾害风险, 未来预估

Abstract: Based on the simulations from 22 CMIP5 models and in combination with the socio-economic data, the extreme heat risk change during the near term (2016-2035), medium term (2046-2065) and long term (2080-2099) were projected by quantitative estimation under RCP8.5. The results show that the extreme heat hazard risk will gradually increase during different terms in the future, and extreme heat risk will also tend to increase. Class III and above of the extreme heat risk will increase, especially in the northeast, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Guizhou, Fujian provinces (autonomous region). In Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Anhui provinces, Class V of the extreme heat risk tends to appear in the near term, and it will extend to Jiangsu, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Sichuan, Guangxi and Guangdong provinces (autonomous region) in the medium and long term.

Key words: RCP8.5 scenario, extreme heat risk, projection

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