关键词: CMIP5/CMIP3, 中国, 年平均气温, 历史模拟, 评估

Abstract: The simulation for China annual average surface temperature by CMIP5 models was assessed, referring to the observation data from CRUT3v and CN05. The results show that CMIP5 models are able to simulate the warming occurring in China over 1906-2005 with a trend of 0.77℃/100a from the multi-model ensemble mean, close to the observed value of 0.84℃/100a. The simulations of warming for the late 20th century are much better than that for the early 20th century, and only 2 out of the 25 CMIP5 models can capture the anomalous warming period around the 1940s. The simulations for the China-wide distribution of 20-year (1986-2005) averaged surface temperature are broadly well. However, notable underestimations for surface temperature climatology appear almost all over China, and the largest bias and uncertainty occur over western China. On the regional scale, northern China experienced stronger warming than southern China over the period of 1961-1999, for which the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble mean provides roughly realistic simulations, but underestimates the difference in warming trends between the North and the South. To sum up, the simulations from CMIP5 models are obviously improved in the three aspects mentioned above, compared with the CMIP3 simulations.

Key words: CMIP5/CMIP3, China, annual average surface temperature, historical simulation, assessment