气候变化研究进展 ›› 2012, Vol. 8 ›› Issue (6): 391-396.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2012.06.001

• 气候变化与水资源专栏 •    下一篇

气候变化背景下水资源脆弱性研究与展望

夏军1,陈俊旭2,翁建武2,佘敦先2,邱冰2,万龙2,洪思2   

  1. 1中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
    2中国科学院大学
    3武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室 
  • 收稿日期:2012-06-25 修回日期:2012-09-04 出版日期:2012-11-30 发布日期:2012-11-30
  • 通讯作者: 夏军 E-mail:xiaj@igsnrr.ac.cn

Advances and Future Prospects of Research in Water Resources Vulnerability Under Climate Change

  • Received:2012-06-25 Revised:2012-09-04 Online:2012-11-30 Published:2012-11-30

摘要: 论述了气候变化背景下水资源脆弱性概念、内涵及其与适应性管理的联系;综述了水资源脆弱性定量评估方法,包括指标权重法、函数及综合指标法等;介绍了减少水资源脆弱性的适应对策研究。分析表明,联系水资源供需矛盾的水资源脆弱性既有自然变化脆弱性的一面,又有气候变化影响导致水资源供需关系发生变化以及旱涝灾害影响加剧水资源脆弱性的问题。关键是要识别影响水资源脆弱性变化的主要调控变量,通过应对气候变化的适应性对策研究,最大限度地减少水资源脆弱性。未来气候变化背景下水资源脆弱性研究,将在进一步发展脆弱性影响与评估基础上,逐步转到适应性水资源管理与对策的研究。

关键词: 水资源, 脆弱性, 定量评价方法, 适应性管理

Abstract: This paper addresses issues on water resource vulnerability under climate change background. The concept and connotation of water resource vulnerability and the corresponding adaptive management are presented. The quantitative evaluation methods of water resource vulnerability, mainly include the index weight method, function and integrated indicator methods. The water resource vulnerability not only has natural variability but also is affected by changes in relationship between water supply and demand resulted from climate change and the impacts of droughts and floods. The key issue is to identify the governing variables which have main influence on water resource vulnerability. For future perspective, study on water resource vulnerability will go to adaptive management.

Key words: water resources, vulnerability, quantitative assessment method, adaptive management

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