气候变化研究进展 ›› 2011, Vol. 7 ›› Issue (5): 336-341.

• 气候变化影响 • 上一篇    下一篇

近50年气候变暖对黑龙江省玉米增产贡献的研究

李秀芬1,陈莉2,姜丽霞1,3   

  1. 1. 黑龙江省气象科学研究所
    2. 黑龙江省哈尔滨市气象局
    3.
  • 收稿日期:2011-06-28 修回日期:2011-07-21 出版日期:2011-09-30 发布日期:2011-09-30
  • 通讯作者: 李秀芬 E-mail:china_licn@yahoo.com.cn
  • 基金资助:
    农用天气预报关键技术研究;气候变暖对黑龙江省种植业的影响及低温冷害风险研究;东北粮食生产格局的气候变化影响与适应

Contribution of Climate Warming to Maize Yield for 1961-2008 in Heilongjiang Province

  • Received:2011-06-28 Revised:2011-07-21 Online:2011-09-30 Published:2011-09-30

摘要: 使用黑龙江省1961—2008年22个站的逐日气象资料和玉米主产县的产量资料,确立基准时段,建立气温影响系数,分析气候变暖对黑龙江省玉米单产增加/减少的贡献率。结果表明:近50年来,气候变暖总体上对黑龙江省玉米单产增加趋势有利。以1961—1969年为基准时段,相对于20世纪60年代,70年代、80年代、90年代和21世纪初气候变暖的贡献率分别为16.8%、16.0%、20.9%和23.9%;以1970—1983年为基准时段,相对于20世纪70年代,80年代、90年代和21世纪初气候变暖的贡献率分别为3.6%、9.2%和11.2%。

关键词: 黑龙江省, 气候变暖, 气温影响系数, 玉米单产, Heilongjiang Province, climate warming, temperature influence coefficient, maize yield

Abstract: Heilongjiang Province is one of major maize production bases for China. The maize yield fluctuation is closely linked with the country food security. Therefore, it is of significance to study the influence of climate warming on maize yields in this region under the background of climate warming. Based on the daily meteorological data of 22 weather stations and the maize yields of the main counties in 1961-2008 in Heilongjiang Province, the influence of climate warming on maize yield was carried out. The reference period was selected and the temperature influence coefficient was built. The results indicate: in the recent 50 years, the climate warming was favourable to the increasing tendency of maize yield. If 1961-1969 is used as the reference period, the contribution of climate warming to the maize yield in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2001-2008 is respectively 16.8%, 16.0%, 20.9% and 23.9%, relative to that of the 1960s. If 1970-1983 is used as the reference period, then the contribution of climate warming to the maize yield in the 1980s, 1990s and 2001-2008 is respectively 3.6%, 8.2% and 11.2% , relative to that of the1970s.

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