气候变化研究进展 ›› 2011, Vol. 7 ›› Issue (1): 65-72.

• 调查研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

乌鲁木齐河流域普通民众对冰冻圈变化的感知及适应性对策选择

邓茂芝1,张洪广2,毛炜绎3,王英巍3   

  1. 1. 气象科学研究院气候所
    2. 中国气象局党组办
    3. 中国气象局科技与气候变化司
  • 收稿日期:2010-05-19 修回日期:2010-08-03 出版日期:2011-01-30 发布日期:2011-01-31
  • 通讯作者: 邓茂芝 E-mail:dmz@cma.gov.cn

Public Perception on the Cryosphere Changes and Selections of Adaptation Measures in U¨ru¨mqi River Basin

  • Received:2010-05-19 Revised:2010-08-03 Online:2011-01-30 Published:2011-01-31

摘要: 基于乌鲁木齐河流域普通民众对气候变化及冰冻圈变化感知情况的问卷调查,结合有关监测研究结果,分析了普通民众对流域气候变化及冰冻圈变化的感知情况,探讨了环境变化对流域水资源和农业生产的可能影响。普通民众对气候变化和冰冻圈变化的感知基本与科学监测事实相符。对气候变化和冰冻圈变化条件下普通民众对水资源紧缺的适应措施的分析发现:1)普通民众倾向于选择“制度”的改变和基础设施建设等以政府或决策部门为主导的适应性措施;2)对主动避开不利的自然环境有较大的倾向性,如外出打工或迁居;3)普通民众对亲身参与到适应措施中来的紧迫性认识仍然不足;4)一些适应措施的实施需要因地制宜,“开源”要与“节流”有机结合。

Abstract: Based on the questionnaires concerning general public apprehension on climate and cryosphere changes in the Urumqi River basin, this paper attempted to explain the characteristics of the public perception, reasons for the similarities, differences with reported scientific conclusions and potential impacts of environment changes on water resources and agricultural production. The paper also analyzed public choice of adaptation measures, with conclusions as follows: 1) the public tend to choose adaptation measures such as system changes and infrastructure construction which were generally led by government or decision-making authorities; 2) the public tend to take initiatives to avoid the adverse natural environment, such as simply relocating their residence; 3) the public perception on the urgent situation of participating in adaptation measures is still insufficient; 4) implementation of such adaptation measures should be in accordance with local conditions, and require the integration of “open source” and “cost-cutting” measures as well.

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