关键词: 碳强度, 能源效率, 人均GDP, 工业增加值比重, carbon intensity, energy efficiency, GDP per capita, proportion of the industrial value of GDP

Abstract: Based on an autoregressively distributed lag model, this study examined the long-term relationship between carbon intensity and energy efficiency, income level and industrial composition in the case of China by employing the data of 1980-2007. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship of China’s carbon intensity with GDP per capita, energy efficiency and industrial value added. Improvement in energy efficiency makes carbon intensity drop, and an increase in the proportion of the industrial value of GDP raises the carbon intensity. There is an inverted-U relationship between carbon intensity and GDP per capita. China reached the turning-point of carbon intensity in early 1990s. But because of a drop in energy efficiency and an increase in industrial proportion of GDP, China’s carbon intensity rebounded again.