气候变化研究进展 ›› 2010, Vol. 6 ›› Issue (02): 130-135.

• 温室气体排放 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于多目标规划的中国二氧化碳减排的宏观经济成本估计

范英,张晓兵,朱磊   

  1. 中国科学院 科技政策与管理科学研究所
  • 收稿日期:2009-07-23 修回日期:2009-12-04 出版日期:2010-03-30 发布日期:2010-03-30
  • 通讯作者: 范英

Estimating the Macroeconomic Cost of CO2 Emission Abatement in China Based on Multi-objective Programming

  • Received:2009-07-23 Revised:2009-12-04 Online:2010-03-30 Published:2010-03-30

摘要: CO2减排的宏观经济代价对处于不同发展阶段的国家有着巨大的差异,对此给出科学的估计具有重要的科学和现实意义。本文运用基于投入产出的多目标规划对中国CO2减排的宏观经济成本进行了估算。结果表明:CO2排放控制对我国经济的影响十分显著,在目前条件下,我国2010年CO2减排的宏观经济成本为3100~4024元/t CO2;而且减排的力度越大,相应的单位减排的宏观经济成本越高。采掘业、石油行业、化学工业、金属冶炼等行业和部门是CO2的高排放部门,但同时也是实现减排较有潜力的部门。

关键词: CO2减排, 宏观经济成本, 多目标规划, 投入产出分析

Abstract: The macroeconomic cost of CO2 emission abatement may be greatly different for countries in different development phases. Estimating this cost scientifically is of important scientific and practical significance. This paper estimates the macroeconomic cost of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission abatement in China, employing the input-output analysis with the multi-objective programming approach. The results show that the effect of abating CO2 emission on China's economy is significant. Under the present conditions, the estimated macroeconomic cost of CO2 emission abatement for China in 2010 is approximately between 3100 RMB/t and 4024 RMB/t. The stronger the abatement actions are, the higher the macroeconomic cost of per unit emission reduction would be. Mining, oil industry, chemical industry, and metal smelting industry are high CO2-emission industries, but meanwhile they have more potential to abate their CO2 emissions.

Key words: CO2 emission abatement, macroeconomic cost, multi-objective programming, input-output analysis

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