气候变化研究进展 ›› 2008, Vol. 4 ›› Issue (000): 32-36.
Projection of Future Precipitation Extremes Change (2001-2050) in the Yangtze River Basin
Zhang Zengxin,Zhang Qiang,Zhang Jinchi,Jiang Tong,Klaus Fraedrich
Projection of Future Precipitation Extremes Change (2001-2050) in the Yangtze River Basin
Zengxin Zhang,Qiang Zhang,Jinchi Zhang,Tong Jiang,Klaus Fraedrich
摘要： Daily maximum rainfall (R1D) was higher in the Jialing River basin, the Taihu Lake area and the mid-lower main stream section of the Yangtze River basin in the 1990s, and there was a good relationship between ECHAM5/MPI-OM model simulation and the observed data about extreme precipitation (R1D). Under the IPCC SRES A2, A1B, and B1 scenarios, R1Ds are all projected to be in increasing trends in the upper Yangtze River basin during 2001-2050, and R1D shows a more significant increasing tendency under the A2 scenario when compared with the A1B scenario before 2020. With respect to the middle and lower Yangtze River basin, an increasing tendency is projected before 2025, and since then the increasing tendency will become insignificant. There might be more floods to the south of the Yangtze River and more droughts to the north in the next decades.