关键词: 长江流域, 极端降水, 日最大降水, 预估

Abstract: Daily maximum rainfall (as an index for extreme precipitation) was higher in the Jialing River basin, Taihu Lake area, the mid-lower main stream section in the 1990s, and there was a good relationship between ECHAM5/MPI-OM simulations and observed data about extreme precipitation. Under the A2, A1B, and B1 greenhouse gases emission scenarios of SRES, the extreme precipitation projected in 2000-2050 was compared, the daily maximum rainfall will be dominated by increasing trends in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, with the largest magnitude of increasing tendency under the A2 scenario and the least magnitude under the A1B scenario before 2020. As for the middle and lower reaches, the daily maximum rainfall will increase prominently before 2025, and then decline slightly. There might be more floods in the south of the Yangtze River and more droughts in the north in the future.

Key words: Yangtze River basin, extreme precipitation, daily maximum rainfall, projection