气候变化研究进展 ›› 2007, Vol. 03 ›› Issue (04): 229-233.

• 研究短论 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变暖对中国不同地区农业的影响

刘颖杰 林而达   

  1. 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所
  • 收稿日期:2006-06-22 修回日期:2007-03-19 出版日期:2007-07-30 发布日期:2007-07-30
  • 通讯作者: 刘颖杰

Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture in Different Regions of China

  

  • Received:2006-06-22 Revised:2007-03-19 Online:2007-07-30 Published:2007-07-30

摘要: 摘要:利用国家统计局《中国农村统计年鉴》1984-2003年的数据和同期年平均温度的观测数据,分析了我国不同地区20年间温度变化、农业生产资料投入以及播种面积变化对粮食总产的影响。结果表明,以温度升高为主要特征的气候变化对东北地区农作物增产有明显促进作用,对华北、西北和西南地区的农作物增产有一定抑制作用,对华东和中南地区的农作物粮食产量的影响则不明显。农业投入的增加对各地区的农作物增产在早期作用均显著,后期则增长缓慢。而各地区播种面积的变化对其总产量影响不太明显,但华东和中南地区农业播种面积的持续下降对粮食总产量有较大的抑制作用。

关键词: 气候变化, 粮食产量, 农业投入

Abstract: Abstract: This paper, using the data from "China Rural Statistical Yearbook" 1984-2003 of National Bureau of Statistics and the observation data of average temperature in the same term, has analyzed the impacts of temperature change、the agricultural input and the sown area changes in different regions of China during the last 20 years. The results show that, the climate change with the main character of getting warmer has obviously promoted the crop production increase in the Northeast of China, but restrain which in the North、Northwest and Southwest of China, and has not obvious effects on it in the East and Central South of China. The increase of agricultural input enhances the production obviously in the various regions in the early stages, but the speed of production increase become slowness in the later period. The sown area change has not obvious effects on the production in the various regions, but the continuous decreased sown area has restrained the production in the East and Central South of China.

Key words: climate change, food crop production, agriculture invesment

京ICP备11008704号-4
版权所有 © 《气候变化研究进展》编辑部
地址:北京市海淀区中关村南大街46号 邮编:100081 电话/传真:(010)58995171 E-mail:accr@cma.gov.cn
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发 技术支持:support@magtech.com.cn