关键词: 后京都协议, 气候谈判, 对策思考

Abstract: The negotiation of the international climate regimes is a highly complicated process. Nevertheless, the determinants for beyond 2012 commitments rely on the political will, economic interest and scientific knowledge of the global powers. The vehicles for post-Kyoto negotiations will be not only confined to the UNFCCC process, but bilateral, multilateral and even unilateral commitments outside the UNFCCC are also likely to take place. Furthermore, the contents of agreements will cover mitigation, adaptation, technologies, and low carbon development. In the end, it is possible that a basket of agreements will be concluded under the overall framework of sustainable development. In the next 20 years or so, China will be in the process of large-scale and rapid industrialization and urbanization. The choice by China for climate agreements will have to consider the reduction of possible risks, avoidance of inflexible restrictions, and active participation in the negotiation and making of international regimes, so as to safeguard and promote sustainable development in China.

Key words: post-Kyoto agreements, climate negotiation, policy choices by China