气候变化研究进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 10 ›› Issue (2): 127-134.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2014.02.007

• 气候变化影响 • 上一篇    下一篇

1951—2012年降水变化对涪江流域径流的影响

王 勇1,许红梅2,程炳岩1,黄大鹏2,谭云廷3,罗 勇   

  1. 1 重庆市气候中心,重庆 401147;
    2 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081;
    3 丰都县气象局,重庆 408200;
    4 清华大学地球系统数值模拟教育部重点实验室/清华大学地球系统科学研究中心,北京 100084
  • 收稿日期:2013-11-25 修回日期:2014-01-20 出版日期:2014-03-30 发布日期:2014-03-30
  • 通讯作者: 王勇 E-mail:190403030@qq.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究发展计划项目;海南省气象局科技创新项目

Impacts of Precipitation Change on the Runoff Change in the Fujiang River Basin During the Period of 1951-2012

Wang Yong1, Xu Hongmei2, Cheng Bingyan1, Huang Dapeng2, Tan Yunting3, Luo Yong4   

  1. 1 Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing 401147, China; 
    2 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 
    3 Fengdu Meteorological Bureau, Chongqing 408200, China;
    4 Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, Beijing 100084, China
  • Received:2013-11-25 Revised:2014-01-20 Online:2014-03-30 Published:2014-03-30
  • Contact: Yong Wang E-mail:190403030@qq.com

摘要: 采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验统计方法,分析涪江流域径流与降水的变化趋势与突变特征,用累积量斜率变化率比较法评估降水对涪江流域径流变化的影响。结果表明,1951—2012年涪江流域年径流量与降水量均表现为显著的减少趋势,突变出现在1968年,20世纪90年代以后降水与径流明显偏少;年径流量与降水量有很好的线性相关关系,但在冬季相关性较差;降水减少是径流减少的主要原因(贡献率为71.4%),而下垫面人类生产活动对径流减少的贡献率为28.6%。

关键词: 降水, 径流, 涪江流域

Abstract: The Mann-Kendall test has been applied to detect the trends and abrupt changes of the precipitation and runoff for the Fujiang River basin. The contribution of precipitation to the runoff change has been estimated with the rate of change in the slope of cumulative amount. The results indicate that the annual precipitation and runoff have decreased significantly during the period of 1951-2012, especially after the 1990s, and the abrupt changes of the annual precipitation and runoff both occurred in 1968. The linear relationship between the annual runoff and precipitation is good, but poor in winter. The decrease of runoff could be attributed to precipitation change (71.4%) and human activities (28.6%).

Key words: precipitation, runoff, Fujiang River basin

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