基于高质量发展视角的中国碳配额省级分配方案评价

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.136

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2023, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (1): 74-83.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.136

基于高质量发展视角的中国碳配额省级分配方案评价

谭显春¹^,²^,³, 牛苗苗¹^,³, 顾佰和¹^,²(), 程永龙¹^,³, 朱开伟¹^,³

1 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院，北京 100190
2 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院碳中和战略研究中心，北京 100190
3 中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院，北京 100049

收稿日期:2022-05-30 修回日期:2022-07-20 出版日期:2023-01-30 发布日期:2022-10-24
通讯作者: 顾佰和
作者简介:谭显春，女，研究员
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金专项项目“面向碳中和的国家气候治理体系变革与创新研究”(72140007);国家重点研发计划项目“新时代我国推动全球气候治理和国内应对战略研究”(2018YFC1509008);中国科学院青年创新促进会项目(2022151);美国环保协会项目(20210084);能源基金会项目(G-2009-32445)

Evaluation of China’s provincial carbon quota allocation scheme from the perspective of high-quality development

TAN Xian-Chun¹^,²^,³, NIU Miao-Miao¹^,³, GU Bai-He¹^,²(), CHENG Yong-Long¹^,³, ZHU Kai-Wei¹^,³

1 Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
2 The Center for Carbon Neutrality Strategy, Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
3 School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2022-05-30 Revised:2022-07-20 Online:2023-01-30 Published:2022-10-24
Contact: GU Bai-He

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

碳配额分配是碳排放控制的关键，在实现国家“双碳”目标下探寻更利于高质量发展的省级分配方案具有重要意义。基于平等主义、历史责任、支付能力、排放效率和可行性分配准则，使用综合指标法设计了10种分配方案，并以高质量发展为标准，使用Malmquist指数模型对这些方案进行评价。结果表明：我国各省份在不同分配方案下拥有多样化的碳配额，多数地区根据排放效率准则、支付能力准则、历史责任准则和可行性准则（方案F）获得最大配额。从国家层面看，方案F具有最佳的经济高质量发展性能，是相对最优的选择。从区域层面看，各省在不同分配方案下有不同的经济高质量发展表现，多数地区根据平等主义准则、排放效率准则和可行性准则（方案G）实现最优发展。排放效率指标的选取对分配方案的结果具有稳健性。

关键词: 碳配额, 省级分配, 综合指标法, 高质量发展

Abstract:

Carbon quota allocation is the key to carbon emissions control. It is of great significance to explore provincial-level allocation schemes that are more conducive to high-quality development under the national “dual carbon” goal. Based on egalitarianism, historical responsibility, capacity to pay, emission efficiency and feasible allocation criteria, 10 allocation schemes were designed using the comprehensive indicator method; Taking high-quality development as standard, the Malmquist index model was used to evaluate these schemes. The results show that various provinces in China have diversified carbon quotas under different allocation schemes, and most regions obtain the maximum quota according to scheme F of emission efficiency criteria, capacity to pay criteria, historical responsibility criteria and feasibility criteria. From the national perspective, scheme F has the best economic and high-quality development performance, which is the relatively optimal choice. From the regional perspective, each province has different high-quality economic development performance under different allocation schemes. Most regions achieve the optimal development according to scheme G of comprehensive egalitarianism principle, emission efficiency principle and feasibility principle. The selection of emission efficiency indicators is robust to the results of allocation scheme.

Key words: Carbon quota, Provincial distribution, Comprehensive index method, High-quality development

谭显春, 牛苗苗, 顾佰和, 程永龙, 朱开伟. 基于高质量发展视角的中国碳配额省级分配方案评价[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(1): 74-83.

TAN Xian-Chun, NIU Miao-Miao, GU Bai-He, CHENG Yong-Long, ZHU Kai-Wei. Evaluation of China’s provincial carbon quota allocation scheme from the perspective of high-quality development[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(1): 74-83.

图/表 7

图1 研究框架

Fig. 1 Research framework

表1 区域分组

Table 1 Regional grouping

表2 碳配额分配方案和相关准则

Table 2 Carbon allowance allocation schemes and related guidelines

图2 2030年不同方案中各省份分配的碳配额

Fig. 2 Carbon quotas allocated by province in different schemes in 2030

表3 国家层面不同分配方案的评价结果

Table 3 Evaluation results of different schemes at the country level

图3 省级层面不同分配方案的评价结果

Fig. 3 Evaluation results of different schemes at the provincial level

图4 基于不同指标的分配方案评价结果

Fig. 4 Evaluation results of schemes based on different indicators

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基于高质量发展视角的中国碳配额省级分配方案评价

Evaluation of China’s provincial carbon quota allocation scheme from the perspective of high-quality development

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