基于学习曲线的中国未来制氢成本趋势研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.248

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (3): 283-293.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.248

所属专题： “碳中和”目标下的关键节点——2035美丽中国低碳发展路径研究专栏

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基于学习曲线的中国未来制氢成本趋势研究

王彦哲¹^,²^,³(), 欧训民¹^,²^,³, 周胜¹^,²^,³()

1 清华大学张家港氢能与先进锂电技术联合研究中心,北京 100084
2 清华大学核能与新能源技术研究院,北京 100084
3 清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京 100084

收稿日期:2021-10-19 修回日期:2021-12-14 出版日期:2022-05-30 发布日期:2022-03-31
通讯作者: 周胜
作者简介:王彦哲,男,硕士研究生, yz-wang19@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家重点研发专项(2018YFE0202004);国家自然科学基金项目(71874096);清华大学产业发展与环境治理研究中心(CIDEG);中国能源模型论坛(CEMF)

Future cost trend of hydrogen production in China based on learning curve

WANG Yan-Zhe¹^,²^,³(), OU Xun-Min¹^,²^,³, ZHOU Sheng¹^,²^,³()

1 Tsinghua University-Zhangjiagang Joint Institute for Hydrogen Energy and Lithium-Ion Battery Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
2 Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
3 Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

Received:2021-10-19 Revised:2021-12-14 Online:2022-05-30 Published:2022-03-31
Contact: ZHOU Sheng

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

氢能是中国能源系统低碳转型和实现2060年前碳中和目标的重要技术选择之一。根据原料来源可以将氢分为绿氢、蓝氢和灰氢,其制备成本和碳排放强度存在较大差异。文中以中国氢能生产现状为基础,建立基于学习曲线的平准化制氢成本（LCOH）模型,测算不同制氢技术从2020年到2060年的成本变化趋势。结果表明：现阶段灰氢成本最低,绿氢成本最高;到2030年绿氢成本将下降至20~25元/kg;2050年后,绿氢将成为成本最低的制氢方式（含碳排放成本),而且PEM（质子交换膜）电解水制氢的成本将低于AE（碱性）电解水制氢,光伏+PEM电解水制氢成本将下降至12元/kg。电解槽和电力成本下降是未来绿氢成本下降的主要驱动因素。敏感性分析表明,运营维护成本和关键技术学习率是影响绿氢成本下降速度的重要参数。

关键词: 氢能, 平准化成本, 学习曲线, 绿氢, 电解水制氢

Abstract:

Hydrogen is one of the important technology choices for the low-carbon transition of China’s energy system and the carbon neutrality goal by 2060. According to the source, hydrogen can be divided into 3 kinds: green, blue and gray hydrogen. There are big differences in the cost and carbon emission intensity among them. Based on the current status of China’s hydrogen production. A levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) model was established with a learning curve. The cost trend of different hydrogen production methods was measured from 2020 to 2060. Results show that the cost of gray hydrogen is the lowest, and that of green hydrogen is the highest at present; by 2030, the cost of green hydrogen will drop to CNY 20-25/kg; after 2050, green hydrogen will become the lowest cost hydrogen (considering the cost of carbon emissions), the cost of hydrogen from PEM (proton exchange membrane) electrolysis will be lower than that of AE (alkaline) electrolysis, and the cost of hydrogen from photovoltaic power + PEM electrolysis will be reduced to CNY 12/kg. The decrease in the cost of electrolyzer and renewable electricity generation will be the main driving factors for the cost reduction of green hydrogen. Sensitivity analysis shows that operation & maintenance cost and learning rate of key technologies will significantly affect the cost reduction rate of green hydrogen.

Key words: Hydrogen, Levelized cost, Learning curve, Green hydrogen, Hydrogen from water electrolysis

王彦哲, 欧训民, 周胜. 基于学习曲线的中国未来制氢成本趋势研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(3): 283-293.

WANG Yan-Zhe, OU Xun-Min, ZHOU Sheng. Future cost trend of hydrogen production in China based on learning curve[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(3): 283-293.

图/表 10

表1 不同制氢技术路线2020年和2060年参数

Table 1 Parameters of different hydrogen production methods in 2020 and 2060

表2 中国新能源发电和电解槽装机容量

Table 2 Installed capacity of new energy power and electrolyzer in China GW

图1 不同技术学习率注：电解槽时间段为1956—2014年,风电、光伏时间段为2008—2020年。

Fig. 1 Learning rate of different technology

表3 电解槽学习率的研究结果

Table 3 Study results of learning rate of electrolyzer %

图2 不同制氢技术未来投资成本

Fig. 2 Future investment cost of different hydrogen production technologies

图3 不含碳排放成本的平准化制氢成本

Fig. 3 Levelized cost of hydrogen without carbon emission cost

图4 含碳排放成本的平准化制氢成本

Fig. 4 Levelized cost of hydrogen with carbon emission cost

图5 光伏发电+PEM电解水制氢成本下降途径

Fig. 5 Cost reduction approach of hydrogen from photovoltaic + PEM water electrolysis

图6 不同运营维护成本情景下2050年的制氢成本

Fig. 6 Hydrogen production cost under different operating and maintenance cost scenarios in 2050

图7 不同学习率下未来风光电解水制氢成本

Fig. 7 Future cost of hydrogen from water electrolysis by photovoltaic or wind power in different learning rates

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基于学习曲线的中国未来制氢成本趋势研究

Future cost trend of hydrogen production in China based on learning curve

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