气候变化研究进展 ›› 2021, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (4): 430-443.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.114

• 气候系统变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

全球变暖下青藏高原东南侧常年南风强度的多模式结果比较分析

祁莉1(), 杨睿婷2   

  1. 1 南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京 210044
    2 云南机场集团公司大理机场,大理 671000
  • 收稿日期:2020-06-08 修回日期:2020-07-07 出版日期:2021-07-30 发布日期:2021-08-11
  • 作者简介:祁莉,女,教授, qili@nuist.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划(2017YFA0603803)

Variation of southerly wind on the southeast side of Tibetan Plateau under global warming: comparison among CMIP5 simulations

QI Li1(), YANG Rui-Ting2   

  1. 1 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing 210044, China
    2 Dali Airport of Yunnan Airport Group, Dali 671000, China
  • Received:2020-06-08 Revised:2020-07-07 Online:2021-07-30 Published:2021-08-11

摘要:

青藏高原东南侧存在一个特殊区域,它常年维持南风,与东亚季风紧密联系,强度变异也将对下游天气气候造成明显影响。该区域南风对全球变暖背景下青藏高原的快速增暖十分敏感。文中利用国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段(CMIP5)中13个模式的多情景预估结果,分析了全球变暖1.5℃、2℃和3℃下常年南风区南风强度的变异特征。结果表明,13个模式中仅BCC-CSM1.1、GFDL-CM3和MIROC5模式能够较好地模拟常年南风区的范围,以及其独特的“双峰型”季节演变特征。然而,对南风的预估,模式间存在较大差异。MIROC5模式预估南风将明显加强,尤其6月之后,并持续至12月,但BCC-CSM1.1和GFDL-CM3模式预估南风在秋季后将明显减弱。进一步分析发现,各模式预估的差异主要源于它们对青藏高原及东亚地区之间温差的模拟存在显著差异。MIROC5模式模拟的青藏高原升温幅度高于周边区域,其与东亚平原之间的温度梯度将使常年南风区南风增强。因此,模式未来改进中应特别关注对青藏高原与其周边热力梯度的合理模拟,这对青藏高原区及东亚季风气候的正确模拟至关重要。

关键词: 青藏高原, 南风变化, 变暖1.5℃, 变暖2℃, 变暖3℃

Abstract:

There is a special region on the southeast side of Tibetan Plateau. Southerly wind occurs through the whole year, which is closely related with East Asian monsoon and plays an important role in the weather and climate in its downstream region. Under global warming, rapid warming Tibetan Plateau makes this southerly sensitive. In order to estimate its future change under global warming, CMIP5 simulations were analyzed and compared. The results show that, in 13 CMIP5 models, only BCC-CSM1.1, GFDL-CM3 and MIROC5 models can well simulate the southerly region and its “double-peak” evolution feature in seasonal cycle. However, there are significant differences among models in the future change of the southerly. In MIROC5, the southerly will significantly enhance from June to December. But the southerly in BCC-CSM1.1 and GFDL-CM3 simulation will be significantly weakened after the autumn. Further analysis indicates that the difference of the southerly wind change is occasioned by the simulation difference of the thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and East Asian plain. For MIROC5 simulation, the temperature increase over Tibetan Plateau is larger than its surrounding. The induced thermal contrast will further enhance the southerly wind. Therefore, Reasonable simulation of the thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding is very important for East Asian climate estimation.

Key words: The Tibetan Plateau, Change of the southerly wind, Global warming of 1.5℃, Global warming of 2℃, Global warming of 3℃

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