碳市场、行业竞争力与碳泄漏：以钢铁行业为例

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.190

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

全国碳市场的建设已启动。钢铁行业是被纳入碳市场的主要行业之一,碳市场政策势必对其竞争力带来一定的影响。文中通过构建局部均衡模型,从价格、产量、贸易和碳泄漏等方面定量研究分析碳市场对我国钢铁行业竞争力的影响,并对影响模型结果的关键参数做敏感性分析,包括减排成本曲线、配额分配方式和贸易弹性。研究结果表明,碳市场对于钢铁行业的竞争力影响不太大,但是需要高度关注碳泄漏问题。

关键词: 碳市场, 钢铁行业, 竞争力, 配额分配方式, 贸易弹性, 碳泄漏

Abstract:

In December 2017, China officially announced the launch of the national carbon market, which will provide institutional guarantees for China’s carbon emissions peaking as early as possible and coordinating environmental issues. The industries covered by the national carbon market include energy intensive sectors such as electricity, steel, cement, chemicals, paper, and non-ferrous metals. The carbon market policy is bound to have certain impacts on their competitiveness. By constructing a partial equilibrium model, this paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of carbon market on the competitiveness of China’s steel industry from the aspects of price, output, trade and carbon leakage, and makes sensitivity analysis on key parameters affecting the model results, including emission reduction cost curve, quota allocation method and trade elasticity. The research results show that the carbon market has not much impact on the competitiveness of the steel industry, but more attention should be paid to the carbon leakage issue.

Key words: Carbon market, Steel sector, Sector competitiveness, Quota allocation method, Trade elasticity, Carbon leakage

林文斌,顾阿伦,刘滨,王兆新,周玲玲. 碳市场、行业竞争力与碳泄漏：以钢铁行业为例[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(4): 427-435.

Wen-Bin LIN,A-Lun GU,Bin LIU,Zhao-Xin WANG,Ling-Ling ZHOU. Carbon market, sector competitiveness and carbon leakage: steel sector case[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(4): 427-435.

图/表 8

表1 3个典型情景

Table 1 Three typical scenarios

图1 不同碳价和配额拍卖比例下钢铁行业产品价格(a, b)和产量(c, d)的变化

Fig. 1 Changes in price (a, b) and output (c, d) of the steel industry under different carbon price and allowance auction ratio

图2 不同碳价和配额拍卖比例下钢铁行业CO2排放

Fig. 2 CO2 emission of the steel industry under different carbon price and allowance auction ratio

图3 不同碳价和配额拍卖比例下钢铁行业碳泄漏

Fig. 3 Carbon leakage of the steel industry under different carbon price and allowance auction ratio

图4 不同模型得到的钢铁行业边际减排成本曲线

Fig. 4 Marginal abatement cost curves of the steel industry obtained by different models

图5 不同MAC曲线假设下模型结果对比

Fig. 5 Comparison of model results under different marginal abatement cost curves

图6 不同Armington弹性下模型结果对比

Fig. 6 Comparison of model results under different Armington elasticities

图7 不同配额分配方式下模型结果对比

Fig. 7 Comparison of model results under different allowance allocation modes

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