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气候变化研究进展  2019, Vol. 15 Issue (4): 427-435    DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.190
  温室气体排放 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
碳市场、行业竞争力与碳泄漏:以钢铁行业为例
林文斌,顾阿伦(),刘滨,王兆新,周玲玲
清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京 100084
Carbon market, sector competitiveness and carbon leakage: steel sector case
Wen-Bin LIN,A-Lun GU(),Bin LIU,Zhao-Xin WANG,Ling-Ling ZHOU
Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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摘要 

全国碳市场的建设已启动。钢铁行业是被纳入碳市场的主要行业之一,碳市场政策势必对其竞争力带来一定的影响。文中通过构建局部均衡模型,从价格、产量、贸易和碳泄漏等方面定量研究分析碳市场对我国钢铁行业竞争力的影响,并对影响模型结果的关键参数做敏感性分析,包括减排成本曲线、配额分配方式和贸易弹性。研究结果表明,碳市场对于钢铁行业的竞争力影响不太大,但是需要高度关注碳泄漏问题。

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林文斌
顾阿伦
刘滨
王兆新
周玲玲
关键词:  碳市场  钢铁行业  竞争力  配额分配方式  贸易弹性  碳泄漏    
Abstract: 

In December 2017, China officially announced the launch of the national carbon market, which will provide institutional guarantees for China’s carbon emissions peaking as early as possible and coordinating environmental issues. The industries covered by the national carbon market include energy intensive sectors such as electricity, steel, cement, chemicals, paper, and non-ferrous metals. The carbon market policy is bound to have certain impacts on their competitiveness. By constructing a partial equilibrium model, this paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of carbon market on the competitiveness of China’s steel industry from the aspects of price, output, trade and carbon leakage, and makes sensitivity analysis on key parameters affecting the model results, including emission reduction cost curve, quota allocation method and trade elasticity. The research results show that the carbon market has not much impact on the competitiveness of the steel industry, but more attention should be paid to the carbon leakage issue.

Key words:  Carbon market    Steel sector    Sector competitiveness    Quota allocation method    Trade elasticity    Carbon leakage
收稿日期:  2018-12-20      修回日期:  2019-04-26           出版日期:  2019-07-30      发布日期:  2019-07-30      期的出版日期:  2019-07-30
基金资助: 国家自然科学基金(71573145);美国环保协会项目东北亚碳市场链接研究
通讯作者:  顾阿伦    E-mail:  gal@tsinghua.edu.cn
作者简介:  林文斌,男,博士
引用本文:    
林文斌,顾阿伦,刘滨,王兆新,周玲玲. 碳市场、行业竞争力与碳泄漏:以钢铁行业为例[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(4): 427-435.
Wen-Bin LIN,A-Lun GU,Bin LIU,Zhao-Xin WANG,Ling-Ling ZHOU. Carbon market, sector competitiveness and carbon leakage: steel sector case. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(4): 427-435.
链接本文:  
http://www.climatechange.cn/CN/10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.190  或          http://www.climatechange.cn/CN/Y2019/V15/I4/427
表1  3个典型情景
图1  不同碳价和配额拍卖比例下钢铁行业产品价格(a, b)和产量(c, d)的变化
图2  不同碳价和配额拍卖比例下钢铁行业CO2排放
图3  不同碳价和配额拍卖比例下钢铁行业碳泄漏
图4  不同模型得到的钢铁行业边际减排成本曲线
图5  不同MAC曲线假设下模型结果对比
图6  不同Armington弹性下模型结果对比
图7  不同配额分配方式下模型结果对比
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