[1] | IPCC. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013 | [2] | UNFCCC. Communications received from parties in relation to the listing in the chapeau of the Copenhagen Accord [EB/OL]. 2010 [ 2012- 07- 05]. | [3] | Randalls S . History of the 2℃ climate target[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 2010,1(4):598-605 | [4] | Arora V K, Scinocca J F, Boer G J , et al. Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2011,38(5):387-404 | [5] | Baek H J, Lee J, Lee H S , et al. Climate change in the 21st century simulated by HadGEM2-AO under representative concentration pathways[J]. Asia-pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2013,49(5):603-618 | [6] | Meehl G A, Washington W M, Arblaster J M , et al. Climate change projections in CESM1 (CAM5) compared to CCSM4[J]. Journal of Climate, 2013,26(17):6287-6308 | [7] | Wang Z, Lin L, Zhang X , et al. Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming[J]. Scientific Reports, 2017,7:46432 | [8] | Hawkins E, Sutton R . The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2011,37(1-2):407-418 | [9] | Deser C, Phillips A, Bourdette V , et al. Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2012,38(3-4):527-546 | [10] | Dai A, Bloecker C E . Impacts of internal variability on temperature and precipitation trends in large ensemble simulations by two climate models[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2018 ( 365):1-18 | [11] | Wittenberg A T . Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2009,36(12):L12702 | [12] | Deser C, Knutti R, Solomon S , et al. Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2012,2(11):775-779 | [13] | Deser C, Phillips A S, Alexander M A , et al. Projecting North American climate over the next 50 years: uncertainty due to internal variability[J]. Journal of Climate, 2013,27(6):2271-2296 | [14] | Kang S M, Deser C, Polvani L M . Uncertainty in climate change projections of the hadley circulation: the role of internal variability[J]. Journal of Climate, 2013,26(19):7541-7554 | [15] | Shepherd T G . Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2014,7(10):703-708 | [16] | Schindler A, Toreti A, Scoccimarro E , et al. On the internal variability of simulated daily precipitation[J]. Journal of Climate, 2015,28(9):3264-3630 | [17] | Woldemeskel F M, Sharma A, Sivakumar B , et al. Quantification of precipitation and temperature uncertainties simulated by CMIP3 and CMIP5 models[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2016,121(1):3-17 | [18] | Zheng X T, Hui C, Yeh S W . Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2018,50:1-17 | [19] | Sun C, Liu L, Li L , et al. Uncertainties in simulated El Niño-Southern Oscillation arising from internal climate variability[J]. Atmospheric Science Letters, 2018,19:805 | [20] | Hawkins E, Sutton R . The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2009,90(8):333-337 | [21] | 张莉, 丁一汇, 吴统文 , 等. CMIP5模式对21世纪全球和中国年平均地表气温变化和2℃升温阈值的预估[J]. 气象学报, 2013,71(6):1047-1060. | [21] | Zhang L, Ding Y H, Wu T W , et al. The 21st century annual mean surface air temperature change and the 2℃warming threshold over the globe and China as projected by the CMIP5 models[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2013,71(6):1047-1060 (in Chinese) | [22] | Chen X, Zhou T . Uncertainty in crossing time of 2℃warming threshold over China[J]. Science Bulletin, 2016 (18):1451-1459 | [23] | Jiang D, Sui Y, Lang X . Timing and associated climate change of a 2℃ global warming[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2016,36(14):4512-4522 | [24] | 周梦子, 周广胜, 吕晓敏 , 等. 基于CMIP5耦合气候模式的1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018,14(3):221-227. | [24] | Zhou M Z, Zhou G S, Lyu X M , et al. CMIP5-based threshold-crossing times of 1.5℃ and 2℃ global warming above pre-industrial levels[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2018,14(3):221-227 (in Chinese) | [25] | Wang X, Jiang D, Lang X . Climate change of 4℃ global warming above pre-industrial levels[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2018,35(7):757-770 | [26] | Zhao L, Xu J, Powell A M , et al. Uncertainties of the global-to-regional temperature and precipitation simulations in CMIP5 models for past and future 100 years[J]. Theoretical & Applied Climatology, 2015,122(1-2):259-270 | [27] | Kay J E, Deser C, Phillips A , et al. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: a community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2015,96(8):1333-1349 |
|