模式内部变率引起的1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间模拟的不确定性研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.157

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

模式内部变率是模拟结果不确定性的重要来源,然而它对于1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响尚不清楚。因此,基于耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的多模式数据研究了模式内部变率对1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响以及对未来排放情景的敏感性。结果表明,模式内部变率对升温阈值出现时间模拟的影响与外强迫的影响相当,单个模式内部不同成员达到全球平均1.5℃或2℃增温的年份相差2~12年;其影响具有明显的空间差异,影响极大值出现在欧亚大陆以北洋面、白令海峡周围区域、北美东北部及其与格陵兰岛之间的海域、南半球高纬地区等;低排放情景下模式内部变率的影响大于高排放情景。

关键词: CMIP5, 1.5℃和2℃升温, 出现时间, 模式内部变率

Abstract:

Model internal variability has been recognized as an important source of uncertainties of climate simulation results. However, the impact of model internal variability on the uncertainties in the simulation of 1.5℃ and 2℃ warming threshold-crossing time has not been explored to date. In this paper, such impact and the corresponding sensitivity to different future emission scenarios are investigated based on the outputs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5) models. The results show that the effect of internal variability on uncertainties in the simulation of threshold-crossing time is equivalent to that of external forcing. The difference between the threshold-crossing time of model members reaching 1.5℃ or 2℃ global warming is 2-12 years. The influence of internal variability has a clear spatial distribution. Maximum uncertainties are observed at the ocean northern of Eurasia, the area around the Bering Strait, the northeastern North America and the ocean between it and Greenland, and the high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. Model internal variability causes greater uncertainties in the low emission scenario than the high emission scenario.

Key words: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5), 1.5℃ and 2℃ warming, Threshold-crossing time, Model internal variability

季涤非,刘利,李立娟,孙超,于馨竹,李锐喆,张诚,王斌. 模式内部变率引起的1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间模拟的不确定性研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(4): 343-351.

Di-Fei JI,Li LIU,Li-Juan LI,Chao SUN,Xin-Zhu YU,Rui-Zhe LI,Cheng ZHANG,Bin WANG. Uncertainties in the simulation of 1.5℃ and 2℃warming threshold-crossing time arising from model internal variability based on CMIP5 models[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(4): 343-351.

图/表 8

表1 所用模式和成员数目

Table 1 Model descriptions and simulation members

图1 CanESM2模式（所有成员的平均值）在RCP4.5排放情景下2℃增温出现时间的空间分布注：白色区域表示到2100年模式仍未达到2℃增温;a：欧亚大陆北部,b：北美西部,c：中西伯利亚,d：青藏高原。

Fig. 1 The spatial distribution of 2℃ warming threshold-crossing time under RCP4.5 for CanESM2 the average of all members. a: northern Eurasia, b: western North America, c: Central Siberia,d: Tibet plateau

表2 区域名称及范围

Table 2 Regions and their scopes

表3 RCP4.5情景下单个模式所有成员在不同区域最早、最晚达到1.5℃增温的年份以及标准差

Table 3 The earliest and latest year to reach 1.5℃warming and standard deviation of all members for each model under RCP4.5 in different regions

表4 RCP4.5情景下单个模式所有成员在不同区域最早、最晚达到2℃增温的年份以及标准差

Table 4 The earliest and latest year to reach 2℃ warming and standard deviation of all members for each model under RCP4.5 in different regions

图2 CMIP5的7个模式所有成员在RCP4.5排放情景下达到1.5℃增温年份的标准差的空间分布注：白色区域表示到2100年模式仍未达到1.5℃增温。

Fig. 2 The spatial distribution for the standard deviation of 1.5℃ warming threshold-crossing time among all members for each model under RCP4.5

表5 模式所有成员在4个排放情景下达到全球1.5℃增温年份的标准差和极差

Table 5 Standard deviation and range of 1.5℃global warming threshold-crossing time among all members for each model under four emission scenarios

表6 模式所有成员在4个排放情景下达到全球2℃增温年份的标准差和极差

Table 6 Standard deviation and range of 2℃ global warming threshold-crossing time among all members for each model under four emission scenarios

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